Raleigh, N.C. – Scott Brown has returned to the lead in the crucial Massachusetts Senate race. The two were tied at 46% in PPP’s late June poll, but in the firm’s first test of likely voters in this fall’s election, Brown tops Elizabeth Warren, 49-44.
Independents make up almost half (48%) of voters, one of their largest shares of any state’s electorate. Unlike in many states where the role of independents is overblown, here they are truly decisive. And right now Brown is winning with them by 26 points (58-32), similar to June (57-33). To top that off, Brown has grown a bit both with his own party and Warren’s. He has essentially locked up his base (91-7, up from 86-9 just under two months ago), and is now poaching 20% of Warren’s partisans, up from 18% and leaving her with only 73% of the party which accounts for two-and-a-half times as many voters as Brown’s does.
There are two keys for a Warren victory: convincing the majority of voters who want a Democratic-controlled Senate that it depends on her winning, and knocking down Brown’s image as a moderate rebel from the GOP that wants to wrest that majority from Democrats. 53% want Democrats in charge in Congress’ upper chamber, to only 36% who prefer GOP rule. It is 42-40 with independents. But 14% of those who prefer the Democrats are voting for Brown right now, including 20% of the independents and 11% of the Democrats who feel that way. A 14-point swing in the race would mean a nine-point Warren lead (51-42).
Voters are also still more concerned that Warren is too liberal (41%) than that Brown is too conservative (30%), including a 50-19 disparity with independents. They also see Brown as more an independent voice for the state (49%) than a partisan voice for national Republicans (38%), including 56-28 with independents.
“Scott Brown’s been able to hold up his image as a moderate and that has him in a good position right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats will have to convince voters who like him to vote against him anyway to keep the Senate from going Republican.”
PPP surveyed 1,115 likely Massachusetts voters from August 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ellizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat
Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 49%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you think that Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 7%
Too conservative……………………………………… 30%
About right ……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is too
liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 41%
Too conservative……………………………………… 4%
About right ……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you think the Republican Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 9%
Too conservative……………………………………… 56%
About right ……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you think the Democratic Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 45%
Too conservative……………………………………… 12%
About right ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q8 Do you think Scott Brown has been more an
independent voice for Massachusetts or a
partisan voice for the national Republican
Party?
An independent voice for Massachusetts ……. 49%
A partisan voice for the national Republican
Party ………………………………………………………38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 53%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 33%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 7%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 15%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 48%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 17%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
