Raleigh, N.C. – In the wake of signing a controversial immigration bill that is very popular with Republican voters, Jan Brewer has a built a large lead over all of her primary opponents as she seeks to win nomination for a full term as Governor.
Brewer gets 38% to 19% for Buz Mills, 16% for Dean Martin, and 3% for John Munger. In a big change from her primary numbers last fall she is now doing very well with conservative voters. 60% of them approve of her job performance to just 20% who disapprove and she’s getting 40% of the vote from them while her three rivals get just 39% combined between the three of them.
Brewer’s primary opponents may get more steam when they emerge from their current levels of obscurity. 61% of primary voters have no opinion about Mills, 63% are ambivalent toward Martin, and 86% don’t know anything about Munger.
One thing could throw a wrench into Brewer’s hopes for renomination, and that would be a last second entry into the race by Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. He’s easily the most popular Republican in the state, with 70% of voters viewing him favorably to just 22% with an unfavorable opinion.
Arpaio gets 33% in the primary as a prospective candidate to 25% for Brewer, 15% for Martin, 11% for Mills, and just 1% for Munger.
“Jan Brewer’s standing with voters in her party has seen a huge turnaround since last fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She now appears to be in a solid position for nomination to another term provided that Arpaio stays out of the race.”
PPP numbers earlier this week showed Brewer trailing likely Democratic opponent Terry Goddard by 3 points, with the other GOP hopefuls down by wider margins.
PPP surveyed 387 Republican voters from April 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan
Brewer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Arpaio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dean Martin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buz Mills?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 61%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Munger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Joe Arpaio, Jan Brewer, Dean Martin, Buz
Mills, and John Munger who would you vote
for?
Joe Arpaio………………………………………………. 33%
Jan Brewer……………………………………………… 25%
Dean Martin……………………………………………. 15%
Buz Mills ………………………………………………… 11%
John Munger…………………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
just Jan Brewer, Dean Martin, Buz Mills, and
John Munger who would you vote for?
Jan Brewer……………………………………………… 38%
Dean Martin ……………………………………………. 16%
Buz Mills ………………………………………………… 19%
John Munger…………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Conservative…………………………………………… 67%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman …………………………………………………..48% Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
