Raleigh, N.C. – Bob Corker is not enormously well liked, but he starts out the 2012 cycle strongly favored for re-election unless popular ex-governor Phil Bredesen jumps into the race. Even in far-fetched, never-going-to-happen matchups with celebrities Al Gore and Tim McGraw, Corker jumps out to leads of between 15 and 23 points.
Bredesen has a 46-41 advantage over Corker. As a Southern Democrat in a relatively red state, Bredesen plotted a moderate path as governor, and as a consequence, 57% of Republicans, 61% of independents, and 71% of Democrats see him positively, for an astounding overall 63-19 favorability rating. As such, he locks up 83% of his party’s vote against Corker and 15% of the GOP, plus a 43-34 lead with independents.
Corker himself has only a 42-36 approval rating, which puts him about in the middle of the pack of 79 senators on which PPP has polled in the last year. Unlike Bredesen, Corker polarizes the two parties and splits independents, as most politicians do.
But despite a good chunk of his voters still not expressing an opinion on his job performance, and those who do not overly satisfied, Corker still manages to best every other candidate tested against him by a wide margin. Against Gore, the former inhabitant of the state’s other Senate seat, Corker prevails, 53-38. Gore is by far the best-known candidate tested, but voters split 41-50 against him personally. Corker also tops country star McGraw, who has mentioned a desire to seek office as a Democrat in the past, by a 50-28 margin. McGraw is well liked across the board, but surprisingly almost half of voters are not sure how they feel about him. Corker prevails against Harold Ford, Jr., 55-32, much wider than the three points by which he beat Ford to take the seat in 2006. Ford has since renounced Tennessee and proclaims he is a New Yorker now. Corker beats Rep. Jim Cooper, 50-32, and former Rep. Bart Gordon, 52-29. In all the non-Bredesen matchups, Corker expands on the GOP’s 43-37 turnout advantage over the Democrats by posting leads of 18 to 26 points with independents and earning far more Democratic support than his challengers do Republican votes.
“Bob Corker’s in a pretty strong position for reelection unless Phil Bredesen runs,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 500 Tennessee voters from February 9th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Corker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Bredesen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cooper?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Harold Ford, Jr.?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bart Gordon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Al Gore?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim McGraw?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Phil
Bredesen, who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 41%
Phil Bredesen …………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Jim
Cooper, who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 50%
Jim Cooper …………………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold
Ford Jr., who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 55%
Harold Ford Jr…………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Bart
Gordon, who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 52%
Bart Gordon ……………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Al Gore,
who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 53%
Al Gore ………………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Tim
McGraw, who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 50%
Tim McGraw …………………………………………… 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 16%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
