Raleigh, N.C. – Iowa voters are pretty evenly divided on Terry Branstad’s job
performance as Governor. 45% of them approve of the job he’s doing and
44% disapprove. But Branstad would nevertheless start out as a pretty
substantial favorite against most of the Democrats being mentioned as
possible candidates next year.
In a rematch of his 2010 contest with Chet Culver, Branstad would
start out ahead 50/40. Culver continues to be relatively unpopular in
the state with 34% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 46%
with a negative one. Branstad’s up 53/28 with independents and his
overall 10 point lead is similar to the margin he won by last time.
Branstad also has double digit leads over another pair of Democrats who
have expressed interest in running: it’s 48/33 over State Senator Jack
Hatch and 47/31 over State Party chair Tyler Olson.
3 other Democrats we tested come closer to Branstad, but none of them
seem like particularly likely candidates. If Tom Vilsack wanted to make
a return to his former office, he would trail Branstad only 47/46.
Bruce Braley, who seems much more likely to be a Senate candidate,
trails 47/41. And Dave Loebsack would be at a 48/38 deficit.
“Terry Branstad looks like a pretty clear favorite for reelection at this
point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He starts out
with a substantial lead unless Tom Vilsack decides he wants to run against
him.”
Voters in the state think the country should have stricter gun laws by a
50/40 margin. And on the specific issue of an assault weapons ban,
they’re supportive 50/39. 40% of voters in the state have a favorable
opinion of the NRA compared to 43% who hold a negative opinion.
Iowans support same sex marriage by a 46/43 margin. In October of
2011 we found that only 41% of voters thought it should be legal to 48%
who wanted it illegal. That 10 point net increase in support reflects
the national movement over the last few years. 76% of voters say that
gay marriage being legal in the state has had no impact on their lives
or a positive one.
PPP surveyed 846 Iowa
voters from February 1st to 3rd. The margin of error is +/-%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chet Culver?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Hatch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Loebsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tyler Olson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat
Bruce Braley, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 47%
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Chet
Culver, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 50%
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Jack
Hatch, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 48%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Dave
Loebsack, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 48%
Dave Loebsack ……………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Tyler
Olson, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 47%
Tyler Olson……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Tom
Vilsack, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 47%
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brad Anderson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Schultz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q18 If the candidates for Secretary of State in 2014
were Democrat Brad Anderson and Republican
Matt Schultz, who would you vote for?
Brad Anderson………………………………………… 33%
Matt Schultz……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q19 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 46%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q20 Has the legalization of gay marriage in Iowa
had a positive or negative impact on your life,
or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 16%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 24%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 60%
Q21 Would you support or oppose banning assault
weapons?
Support ………………………………………………….. 50%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q22 Would you support or oppose Congress
passing stricter gun laws?
Support ………………………………………………….. 50%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the National Rifle Association?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q24 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q28 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
