Raleigh, N.C. – New/old Iowa Gov.
Terry Branstad’s job approval numbers have rebounded significantly in just over
a month since PPP last polled the state.
45% approved and 43% disapproved in mid-July. Now the spread is 49-37. And if Branstad were to face re-election
today, he would defeat a generic Democratic opponent by the same margin. He won by a similar 10 points in the Republican
wave two years ago. Matched against
actual Democrats in May, Branstad was up by no more than four points and
trailed his successor Tom Vilsack by three, but that was when his approval
numbers were 12 points worse.
Long-time (though still junior) Sen. Tom Harkin has also seen his numbers
rise a bit, from 42-41 to 44-38, but at this point, he would face a much closer
contest against an unnamed opponent than Branstad would. Harkin leads the generic ballot 45-43. He won with 63% of the vote in 2008 against a
nominal opponent, and led even Branstad by five points in a hypothetical
match-up in May.
Harkin’s senior colleague Charles Grassley has the exact same job
performance mark as in July (54-30), making him still one of the country’s most
popular senators.
Justice David Wiggins has a fight on his hands to stay on the Supreme
Court. Right now, 38% each want to
retain him and depose him.
Unsurprisingly, Democrats (58-19) and Republicans (17-56) are equally
polarized, and independents just slightly prefer Wiggins remain in office
(39-36).
Since the last survey, Republicans’ lead in the generic legislative ballot
has shrunk a point from 44-42 to 41-40.
The main reason is that independents have flipped from a 38-33
preference for the GOP to 33-21 in favor of their opponents.
Rep. Steve King’s statewide favorability rating has rebounded a bit almost
entirely because of his base. His 29-34
favorable-unfavorable is up from 26-37 thanks to Republicans’ shift from 50-15
to 57-8. Independents remain sour on him
(20-37).
PPP surveyed 1,244 likely Iowa voters from August
23rd to 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Terry
Branstad or his Democratic opponent?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 49%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q4 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Democrat Tom
Harkin or his Republican opponent?
Tom Harkin……………………………………………… 45%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .54%
Disapprove…………. .30%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q6 Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins is up for
retention this year. If the election was today,
would you vote yes to retain him or no to
remove him from office?
Yes……………………. .38%
No …………………….. .38%
Not sure …………….. .25%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q8 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be more of an Iowa
or Iowa State fan, or are you not a fan of either
school?
Iowa ………………………………………………………. 42%
Iowa State………………………………………………. 22%
Not a fan of either school ………………………….. 36%
Q10 Would you rate Senator Grassley’s social
media skills as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
Excellent ………………………………………………… 16%
Good……………………………………………………… 33%
Fair ……………………………………………………….. 25%
Poor ………………………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 52%
He should not………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
