Raleigh, N.C. – In the shadow of former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich’s trials and tribulations, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady maintains his small but persistent lead over Blago’s successor and former lieutenant governor, Democrat Pat
Quinn. Brady tops Quinn, 42-35, among likely voters, with independent Scott Lee Cohen and Libertarian Lex Green, both measured for the first time, at 6% and 2%, respectively, and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney at 4%. In August, Brady led Quinn and Whitney, 39-30-11.
Democrats are three times as likely to be undecided and more than twice as likely to support one of the third-party candidates as Republicans are. As such, Brady pulls 83% of Republicans to Quinn’s 62% of Democrats. Quinn has managed to narrow the score among independents, trailing Brady now only 39-27, versus 40-15 a month and a half ago. Whitney is down to 8% of unaffiliateds, after having outranked Quinn at 19% last time. Those who had been leaning toward the Green Party nominee seem to be coming home to Quinn, as Whitney is also down to 3% of Democrats, from 10% in August.
Voters have soured even further on Quinn’s job performance over his already dismal 23-53 figure in August. He now posts a 24-60 approval rating, tying him for the fifth least popular governor of 30 PPP has polled on this year. Voters have also moved slightly against Brady, but he is still better liked than Quinn and has almost closed the name recognition gap. He posts a 36-44, down on the margin from last month’s 25-30.
Republicans also have good news in down-ballot statewide constitutional races. Judy Baar Topinka leads David Miller for Comptroller, 52-32, and Dan Rutherford bests Robin Kelly for Treasurer by a much narrower 42-34.
“Things are starting to look a little more encouraging for Pat Quinn than they did earlier in the summer,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He remains personally unpopular but the minor candidates are starting to pick up some of the anti-Quinn instead of it all going to Brady.”
PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Brady, Democrat Pat Quinn, Independent
Scott Lee Cohen, Libertarian Lex Green and
Green Party candidate Rich Whitney. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 42%
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 35%
Scott Lee Cohen ……………………………………… 6%
Lex Green………………………………………………. 2%
Rich Whitney…………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 24%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Brady?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you think Bill Brady is or is not qualified to
be Governor of Illinois?
Qualified…………………………………………………. 45%
Not qualified……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 The candidates for State Comptroller are
Democrat David Miller and Republican Judy
Baar Topinka. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
David Miller …………………………………………….. 32%
Judy Baar Topinka …………………………………… 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Robin Kelly and Republican Dan
Rutherford. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Robin Kelly……………………………………………… 34%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
