Raleigh, N.C. – Barbara Boxer, California’s junior senator, leads all three of her potential Republican opponents by single digits a little over five months before the November election.
Boxer is ahead of leading Republican candidate Carly Fiorina by the slimmest margin of the three GOP contenders, 45-42. She leads Tom Campbell 47-40 and Chuck DeVore 46-40. Boxer wins 78-82% of her party’s vote, with the Republicans getting 82-87% of theirs, but she loses among independents by seven (DeVore and Campbell) or eleven points (Fiorina). Fiorina gets closest among women, losing with 40% to Boxer’s 46%.
Voters overall are down on Boxer’s challengers, though about half to three-quarters of voters have no opinion on each. Fiorina draws a 22-30 favorability margin, DeVore a 10-14, and Campbell a 15-18. The moderate Campbell is the only one who gets positive views from independents, while Fiorina is seen by far the worst by Democrats, despite faring slightly better against Boxer with that party’s voters than the other two do.
Like many incumbents up for re-election, Boxer’s job approval rating is in negative territory. It currently stands at 37-46, compared to the 41-41 mark for her senior colleague Dianne Feinstein, who is generally considered more moderate. Naturally, Boxer does worse with Republicans, at 4-89 to Feinstein’s 11-79.
A near majority of California voters approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance, 49-42, with opinion on the health care law much more positive than in many states, 45% in favor and 42% opposed.
“It definitely looks like this will be Barbara Boxer’s toughest fight for reelection to date,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Once again though she is helped by the fact that even if she’s not too popular, her opposition isn’t either.”
PPP surveyed 921 registered California voters from May 21st to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 42%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 13%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Barbara Boxer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Campbell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 66%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chuck DeVore?
Favorable ………….. 10%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not Sure……………. 76%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carly Fiorina?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 30%
Not Sure……………. 48%
Q8 If the candidates for U.S. Senate were
Republican Tom Campbell and Democrat
Barbara Boxer, who would you vote for?
Tom Campbell ………………………………………… 40%
Barbara Boxer…………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for U.S. Senate were
Republican Chuck DeVore and Democrat
Barbara Boxer, who would you vote for?
Chuck DeVore ………………………………………… 40%
Barbara Boxer…………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for U.S. Senate were
Republican Carly Fiorina and Democrat
Barbara Boxer, who would you vote for?
Carly Fiorina …………………………………………… 42%
Barbara Boxer…………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 36%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 8%
Q12 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 61%
African American …………………………………….. 8%
Asian……………………………………………………… 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
