Raleigh, N.C. – California is the rare state that appears to have no enthusiasm gap. Compared to their GOP counterparts, Democrats in the Golden State are just as enthused about voting as they were in 2008. In that environment, Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is no less endangered for re-election than she was in PPP’s last survey of registered voters in July. She led Carly Fiorina by a 49-40 margin then, and now tops her, 50-42, in PPP’s first survey of likely California voters.
What has changed is that Boxer now trails among independents, 38-50, after winning them 48-38 last time. Fiorina also now has a little more of her base locked up than Boxer does of hers, at 86% of the GOP to Boxer’s 81% of Democrats. In July, they each had a 77-13 lead with their respective partisans. Despite the positive trends with independents, if Fiorina simply won all of the remaining undecided independent and Republican voters, she would get no more than 46% of the vote.
Though she only breaks even on the job approval front, at 46-46, Boxer is up from 43-46 in July, and is still better liked than Fiorina, who comes in at 34-42, a slight improvement from July’s 28-40. Independents have turned sharply against Boxer, from 40-48 to 34-56, and significantly in favor of Fiorina, from 20-40 to 35-39. Luckily for the senator, unaffiliateds account for only 18% of the electorate, and Democrats, who like her more than previously, are now actually slightly more prevalent than they were in the registered electorate two months ago.
Except in 2004, Boxer has never been elected handily, though she has gotten increasingly safer, winning by margins of 5, 10, and 20 points.
“The simple reality is that for a Republican to win in California they have to be appealing to Democrats and for now Carly Fiorina has not passed the test,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barbara Boxer has her party’s voters locked up and for a Democrat in California that’s enough to win.”
PPP surveyed 630 likely California voters from September 14th to 16th. The margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 47%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 42%
No opinion………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Barbara Boxer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carly Fiorina?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 42%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q6 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Carly Fiorina and Democrat Barbara Boxer. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Carly Fiorina …………………………………………… 42%
Barbara Boxer…………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 36%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q8 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Asian……………………………………………………… 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
