Raleigh, N.C. – Counter to a PPP-fueled storyline last month suggesting California’s marijuana-legalizing Proposition 19 might help Democrats Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown by pulling more young voters to the polls, both candidates have even larger leads than before despite the prop heading for a narrow loss. Voters under 30 are turning out at larger rates in California than in other states, they make up a third of those who are most excited about voting for Prop 19 of all the races on the ballot, and they favor the two Democrats by huge margins, but the prop will not likely be the ultimate reason for Boxer’s and Brown’s wins next Tuesday night.
Boxer is leading her Senate challenger, Carly Fiorina, 52-43, just slightly up from her 50-42 edge in September. Brown is beating Meg Whitman for Governor, 53-42, a considerably larger advantage than the 47-42 found five weeks ago. Prop 19, meanwhile, is now opposed by 48% and only supported by 45%; last time, it was winning, 47-38.
The biggest reason Boxer is maintaining her margin and Brown is expanding his is that both have now unified their party more than the Republicans have theirs. Unlike previously, both Democrats are now pulling more Republicans than Whitman and Fiorina are Democrats. Since Democrats make up a huge plurality and near majority of voters, this change overcomes the Republicans’ larger advantages with independents, who make up only 19% of the electorate.
Republicans and independents have turned significantly against Prop 19 as the specter of its passage last month has sunk in. Though it is a small sample with a larger margin of error than the overall sample, the young people who are turning out have also soured on it, from 67-24 to 58-40.
“Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina and their money were making both races very competitive this summer, but Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown could be headed for double-digit wins in the end thanks to a lesser enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats than in other states…and maybe a little pot,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 622 likely California voters from October 21st to 23rd. The margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Carly Fiorina and Democrat Barbara Boxer. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Carly Fiorina …………………………………………… 43%
Barbara Boxer…………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Meg Whitman and Democrat Jerry Brown. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Meg Whitman………………………………………….. 42%
Jerry Brown…………………………………………….. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Barbara Boxer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carly Fiorina?
Favorable ………….. 38%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jerry Brown?
Favorable ………….. 48%
Unfavorable……….. 44%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Meg Whitman?
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 55%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Proposition 19 would legalize marijuana under
California but not federal law. It would permit
local governments to regulate and tax
commercial production, distribution, and sale of
marijuana. Will you vote yes or no on
Proposition 19?
Yes………………………………………………………… 45%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 Are you most excited about voting in the
Senate race, the Governor’s race, the
marijuana proposition, another proposition,
your US House race, or some other local race?
Senate race ……………………………………………. 26%
Governor’s race ………………………………………. 39%
Marijuana prop………………………………………… 10%
Another prop…………………………………………… 4%
US House race ……………………………………….. 1%
Some other local race………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 74%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q14 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 47%
Conservative…………………………………………… 30%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 65%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Asian……………………………………………………… 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
