Raleigh, N.C. – 40% of Pennsylvanians approve of Sen. Bob Casey’s job performance, and 34% disapprove. These are not overwhelming numbers: 46 out of the 86 other senators on which PPP has polled have constituents who are more positive toward them. But Casey is certainly held in higher esteem than the president in this state, and only one of his Senate colleagues who have competitive re-election races next fall have constituents who give them a bigger thumb’s up. Because of Casey’s relative strength, no heavyweights have so far joined the crowded GOP primary race to oppose him, and he is close to the 50% mark against all of the candidates who have.
Casey tops primary leader Sam Rohrer by 11 points (47-36), Steve Welch by 14 (47-33), Tim Burns by 15 (49-34), and Tom Smith by 16 (48-32). Like President Obama, Casey has some weakness with his own party, losing 8-12% of their vote. But he wins 14-17% of the GOP vote, and loses independents only to Rohrer, and by just two points.
One could certainly chalk up Casey’s leads to the anonymity of his announced opponents. Only 17-29% of voters are familiar enough with the four to determine whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. But even if Rohrer were to win all the remaining undecided Republicans and independents, he would still have to earn 19% of the Democratic vote to win.
Plus, the man Casey beat five years ago, current presidential contender Rick Santorum, would fall by ten points himself (49-39) if he were to switch races. Santorum is better-known than even Casey; only 16% have no opinion on him personally, versus 26% on Casey.
“Bob Casey is probably going to have a tougher race than he did in the Democratic wave year of 2006,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he’s still in a pretty solid position for reelection.”
PPP surveyed 500 Pennsylvania voters from November 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .40%
Disapprove…………. .34%
Not sure …………….. .26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Burns?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Rohrer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Welch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Tim
Burns, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Tim Burns ………………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Sam
Rohrer, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 47%
Sam Rohrer ……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Tom
Smith, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 48%
Tom Smith………………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Steve
Welch, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 47%
Steve Welch……………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
