Raleigh, N.C. – Bob Casey’s approval rating has slid since PPP last polled Pennsylvania in early January. Then 41% approved and only 29% disapproved of his performance in the Senate. That margin has fallen to 39-35, as he has slid with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. But he still leads a host of no-name Republicans for re-election, and has actually increased his margin over the much better-known man he defeated in 2006, Rick Santorum. Should Santorum forgo a presidential run for a rematch with Casey, he would start out down double digits.
Casey tops Santorum, 49-37, versus only 48-41 in the previous poll. He edges over 50% against his more likely opponents, beating State Sen. Jake Corman, 51-35; Rep. Jim Gerlach, 50-32; activist Laureen Cummings, 51-32; Rep. Charlie Dent, 51-31; State Sen. Kim Ward, 50-29; and the only announced candidate, attorney Marc Scaringi, 51-28.
Despite a 29-40 job approval mark with the relatively small group of voters not aligned with either party, Casey manages leads of nine to 24 points against every candidate but Santorum, who trails only 38-39 with independents. Casey also wins 13-17% of the GOP vote and loses only 7-11% of his own party’s support.
Except for Santorum, whose 37-47 favorability rating makes him better known than even Casey, none of the Republicans can break 25% name recognition. 75% are unaware of Corman, 78% of Gerlach, 80% of Dent, 81% of Cummings and Ward, and 84% of Scaringi. All of them are seen more unfavorably than favorably.
Casey booted Santorum from the Senate by over 17 points. Tuesday’s release showed President Obama struggling against Santorum and two other potential GOP nominees in an electorate that voted for him in 2008 by only four points, versus his actual ten-point victory.
“Bob Casey’s approval numbers aren’t necessarily intimidating but he has a healthy amount of support from Republicans and that will make him difficult to beat,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “You can see why strong candidates aren’t exactly lining up to run against him.”
PPP surveyed 593 Pennsylvania voters from April 7th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jake Corman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Laureen Cummings?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Dent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Gerlach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Scaringi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Ward?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Jake
Corman, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 51%
Jake Corman ………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Laureen
Cummings, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 51%
Laureen Cummings………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Charlie
Dent, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 51%
Charlie Dent……………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Jim
Gerlach, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 50%
Jim Gerlach…………………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Marc
Scaringi, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 51%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Kim
Ward, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 50%
Kim Ward……………………………………………….. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African American……………………………………… 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
