Raleigh, N.C. – Contrary to polls in the last week showing Linda McMahon closing to a single-digit deficit behind Richard Blumenthal in the Connecticut Senate race, PPP’s first measure of the race since January shows the Democrat still well ahead, though not by the 20-point-plus edge he had had in the spring. The state’s popular Democratic Attorney General leads the Republican WWE executive, 53-41, among likely voters.
Blumenthal is the rare Democrat whose party is more unified than the GOP is, and who is not getting beaten badly with independents. He ties at 45% with unaffiliateds, and is pulling 84% of his party to McMahon’s 79% of Republicans because the Democrat is getting 15% crossover support to McMahon’s 11%. With 41% of voters claiming to be Democrats, 31% independents, and only 28% Republicans, those advantages fuel Blumenthal’s healthy lead.
The two candidates’ personal numbers are exactly flipped, Blumenthal with a strong 53-39 favorability rating to McMahon’s 39-53. Voters also diverge in how they perceive the candidates’ suitability for office. 63% believe Blumenthal fit to serve, but only 47% think that of McMahon, with 44% explicitly saying she is unfit to be a senator.
There is an enthusiasm gap in the Nutmeg State, but not quite as high as in many other states. President Obama beat John McCain by 22 points in 2008, but the 2010 electorate reports having cast ballots for Obama by only a 15-point margin over McCain. If the voter set matched 2008’s, and everything else were true, Blumenthal would be up 56-38.
“Connecticut is a Democratic state to begin with and Richard Blumenthal is confounding many of the trends giving his party’s candidates trouble in other states,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Most Democratic candidates are getting beaten badly with independents. Blumenthal is not. Most Democratic candidates are losing more Democrats than they’re winning Republicans. Blumenthal doesn’t fall in that category either. He still looks solid with four weeks to go.”
PPP surveyed 810 likely Connecticut voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda
McMahon. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Richard Blumenthal………………………………….. 53%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Blumenthal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 53%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q4 Do you think Richard Blumenthal is or is not fit
to hold public office?
Fit………………………………………………………….. 63%
Not fit …………………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you think Linda McMahon is or is not fit to
hold public office?
Fit………………………………………………………….. 47%
Not fit …………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q8 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 49%
Conservative…………………………………………… 32%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 23%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
