Raleigh, N.C. – New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman generally cruises to re-election, and if he chooses to go for a sixth term, he would start off as a heavy favorite. But there has been some speculation he will instead retire. In his stead, Democrats should still be in strong shape to hold his seat unless popular former Governor Gary Johnson declines a run for president to make a bid for Congress’ upper chamber instead.
With a 56-27 approval-disapproval margin, Bingaman is more popular at home than all but four of the 77 colleagues which PPP has measured in the last year or so. This strong favor with his voters gives Bingaman formidable odds to walk to re-election, even against Johson, whose 44-32 favorability rating makes him considerably the best liked of the non-Bingaman candidates, and who is almost equally popular with Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
Johnson comes closest to beating the incumbent, yet still trails, 51-40. By comparison, Rep. Steve Pearce lags Bingaman, 57-34, and Rep. Heather Wilson trails, 56-37. The Republicans all do what would make them far more competitive in almost any other state: they at least match the incumbent in party unity and take more of his voters from him than he does of theirs. But the Democrats’ 26-point turnout advantage and independents’ Democratic leanings make these matchups blowouts. Bingaman wins unaffiliated voters’ support by 7 points over Johnson, 28 over Wilson, and 30 over Pearce.
If Bingaman retires, prospective replacements Reps. Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan would also post strong leads against Pearce and Wilson (53-38 and 50-39 for Heinrich and 49-37 and 48-40 for Lujan). But Heinrich would narrowly lag Johnson, 43-44, and Lujan would fall behind, 40-45. Heinrich and Lujan lose more of their voters to the Republicans than does Bingaman, but they post double-digit leads with independents, except when Lujan faces Johnson, who takes independents by eight points.
“Jeff Bingaman is a near lock for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Gary Johnson could be competitive in an open seat situation but whether some of his unorthodox views would allow him to get the Republican nomination is a different question.”
PPP surveyed 545 New Mexico voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff
Bingaman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin Heinrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ben Ray Lujan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Pearce?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Jeff Bingaman and Republican Gary
Johnson, who would you vote for?
Jeff Bingaman…………………………………………. 51%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Jeff Bingaman and Republican
Steve Pearce, who would you vote for?
Jeff Bingaman…………………………………………. 57%
Steve Pearce ………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Jeff Bingaman and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Jeff Bingaman…………………………………………. 56%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 43%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Steve Pearce, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 53%
Steve Pearce ………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 50%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Gary
Johnson, who would you vote for?
Ben Ray Lujan ………………………………………… 40%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican
Steve Pearce, who would you vote for?
Ben Ray Lujan ………………………………………… 49%
Steve Pearce ………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Ben Ray Lujan ………………………………………… 48%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 6%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 32%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 39%
White …………………………………………………….. 53%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
