Raleigh, N.C. – If Republicans hope to use the Sunshine State to help retake the senate in 2012, they could be out of luck. Despite only fair approval ratings with many voters still unfamiliar with him, Nelson leads all of his potential Republican opponents by double digits.
Only 38% of voters approve of Nelson compared to 31% who disapprove. This is a slight improvement over his 38-34 rating in March. Even though Nelson has been in office for over a decade, 31% of voters still do not have an opinion of him one way or another. While Nelson’s overall rating is nothing to write home about, the party breakdown of his support is helpful for a general election. A solid 17% of Republicans approve of Nelson compared to 46% who disapprove, independents approve 43-29, and his base approves only 53-19. Democrats may not be in love with Nelson, but they’ll back him in the general.
Nelson leads all three by roughly equivalent margins, topping Haridopolos 47-35 (50-34 in May), Hasner 47-35 (48-32), and Lemieux 46-35 (48-33). Nelson takes nearly twice as many Republicans as his opponents take Democrats, and leads independents by double digits against Hasner and Haridopolos and by three against Lemieux.
Just as Obama does, Nelson benefits from weak opposition. None of Nelson’s opponents are known well at all with at least 66% unwilling to venture an opinion for each candidate. Among those who do know them, at least twice as many see them negatively as positively. State Senator Mike Haridopolos has a 7-22 favorability rating, Representative Adam Hasner rates 4-18, and former senator George Lemieux rates 9-25.
“Bill Nelson’s approval ratings aren’t setting the world on fire but he consistently shows double digits leads over his prospective Republican opponents,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 848 Florida voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Haridopolos?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Hasner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Mike
Haridopolos, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Mike Haridopolos …………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Adam
Hasner, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican George
LeMieux, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 46%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
