Polls

Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack, others by at least 11 points

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Sen. Bill Nelson’s approval rating has slipped since PPP last polled Florida in September, but he maintains double-digit leads over all his potential opponents.  That is even true when matched against the highest-profile Republican, Connie Mack IV, whose family name instantly shot him to the top of the primary race when he recently announced he had reversed his original decision not to run.

Nelson leads Mack by eleven points (46-35), Adam Hasner by 15 (48-33), George LeMieux and Mike McCalister also by 15 (47-32), and Craig Miller by 19 (49-30).  Two months ago, Nelson led McCalister by 13 points, Hasner and LeMieux by 14, and Miller by 17.  When Mack was last tested in March, he trailed by 13 points.

After bumping his overall job performance rating to a 40-32 spread in September, Nelson has declined to barely even (38-37).  At 51-27, he continues to be weak with his own party, but he is unusually strong across the aisle, with 22% of Republicans approving.  Meanwhile, with 51% aware enough of him to form an opinion, Mack is the most recognized Republican; the others are known to only 23-33% of voters.  Because of that, more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats in all the matchups, so the race will get closer once the GOP settles on a nominee next year.

But the reason Nelson succeeds in the horse races is not just the anonymity of the GOP contenders.  Rather, he manages to bring his ambivalent partymates around when they enter the voting booth, and the Republicans so far cannot do the same.  Only 8-11% of Democrats pledge for Nelson’s GOP foes, but he maintains 14-18% of the Republican vote, while leading by nine to 17 points with independents.  The Republicans are going to have to cut into Nelson’s popularity with moderate Republicans and independents if they want to have a shot at beating him.

“Nelson might never be beloved, but he has consistently shown double-digit leads over any Republican because of strong crossover support,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 700 Florida voters from November 28th to December 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .38%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .25%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Hasner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Craig Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Adam
Hasner, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 48%
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican George
LeMieux, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 46%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Mike
McCalister, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Craig
Miller, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 49%
Craig Miller……………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

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