New PPP polls in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin- where wins for Joe Biden next year would be enough to get him to 270 electoral votes- find him leading Donald Trump by 3 or 4 points in each of them.
Biden is up 48-44 in both Michigan and Wisconsin, and 48-45 in Pennsylvania.
Most recent coverage of the race has focused on Biden’s struggles, and it’s true that he’s not terribly popular with favorability ratings of 42/51, 40/49, and 41/51 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin respectively.
But elections are a choice and not a referendum. And Biden is popular in these key swing states compared to his likely opponent of Donald Trump and his likely foil of Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans.
Trump’s net favorability rating is -23 in Michigan at 35/58, 14 points worse than Biden’s. It’s -20 at 35/55 in Wisconsin, 10 points worse than Biden’s. And it’s -16 at 38/54 in Pennsylvania, 7 points worse than Biden’s.
And as House Republicans move toward shutting down the government this weekend, Biden looks positively popular compared to their brand. In Michigan House Republicans have a 22/60 favorability spread and Kevin McCarthy has a 19/53 approval rating. In Pennsylvania House Republicans have a 22/57 favorability spread and Kevin McCarthy has a 20/54 approval rating. And in Wisconsin House Republicans have a 25/57 favorability spread and Kevin McCarthy has a 22/54 approval rating.
Democrats did very well in this key trio of states last year, winning Gubernatorial races by an average of 10 points in them and flipping legislative chambers in the two of the states that have fair district maps. It’s not surprising against that backdrop to see Biden with leads in them now that exceed his 2020 margins of victory.
We conducted these polls on behalf of our friends at Save My Country Action Fund. You can see their release here, as well as full results for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that also cover a lot of issues related to democracy and the effort to impeach President Biden.
PPP also conducted a poll this week in New Jersey for our friends at Vote Vets, and we found that Robert Menendez has an 8% approval rating with 74% of voters disapproving of him, about the worst numbers we’ve ever seen for a politician.
One thing we found particularly notable is the extent to which Democrats have turned against Menendez after his indictment. Only 12% of voters even within his own party see Menendez positively while 68% give him negative marks. It’s a pretty stark contrast from the way Donald Trump’s popularity has actually *increased* with Republicans through one indictment after another.
Congressman Andy Kim would lead a generic Republican candidate for Senate next year by 12 points, 44-32, keeping the seat safely within Democratic hands. Meanwhile Menendez fares 34 points worse than Kim, trailing a generic Republican 42-20.
PPP’s been keeping busy of late with the 2023 elections almost here and the 2024 races not far behind. In the last couple weeks we’ve done polls for clients from the top of the ballot to the bottom of the ballot and also about key issues in Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. If we can help you with anything whether it be elections, legislative policy battles, or where the public stands on key issues please send us an email or call us at 888-866-4950. We always love to help.