Polls

Beshear Trails Generic Republican in Kentucky

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C.Facing re-election in 2011, Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear is looking somewhat weak, and could fall victim to voters’ throw-the-bums-out attitude if it spills over into next fall.

Kentucky voters are split on his job performance, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving.  Liberals (61-19) and moderates (52-26) overwhelmingly like how Beshear is handling his job, but the 49% of the electorate which self-identifies as conservative gives him only a 21-54 mark.

This is a slight improvement for Beshear since PPP last polled Kentucky in late December 2009.  Then 36% approved to the same 39% who disapproved.  Beshear has seen his disapproval among the small but conservative group of independents go from 36% to 50%, but his margin among moderates double to 26 points (from 45-32).

When asked if they would vote to give Beshear a second term, only 35% of Kentucky  voters said yes, to 44% who said no.  As with his approval rating, liberals (76-9) and moderates (52-23) are strongly in favor of keeping him in office, but the large bloc of conservatives pledge to vote for his Republican opponent by a 69-10 margin.

“Steve Beshear is better off than a lot of Democratic incumbents, and no worse off than Kentucky’s Republican Senators,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “He’s trailing a generic Republican now, but his fate will depend on the mood of the electorate and the strength of the real Republican opponent.”

Complete results are attached.

PPP surveyed 946 Kentucky voters on May 1st and 2nd.  The margin of error for the survey was +/-3.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 23%

Q2 Generally speaking next year do you think you
will vote to reelect Steve Beshear or will you
vote for his Republican opponent?
Will vote for Beshear………………………………… 35%
Will vote for Republican opponent ……………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%

Q3 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 54%
Obama…………………………………………………… 37%
Someone else/don’t remember ………………….. 9%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 49%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%

Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
African American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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