Raleigh, N.C. – Steve Beshear is tied with Tennessee’s Bill Haslam for the fourth most popular governor on which PPP has polled, and he is headed for a re-election romp this fall. Beshear leads Republican David Williams and independent Gatewood Galbraith by a 55-28-10 margin. The last time PPP polled the race was just before last fall’s election, and then, Beshear was up only 44-35 on Williams, with Galbraith not polled. Beshear has a 57-30 approval margin, up from 48-34 last October.
The differences over the last ten months are many. For one, Republican turnout seems a little depressed compared to last fall, which is to be expected after a strong showing by conservatives in the midterm. But Beshear is also up from 66% to 78% of Democrats, who make up 55% of the electorate, and from 15% to 19% of the GOP, with Williams down a corresponding amount. Williams has also declined from 16% to 8% with Democrats, and remains with only a quarter of independents.
A three-way race for State Treasurer is also helping incumbent Democrat Todd Hollenbach to a strong lead, with 43% to Republican K.C. Crosbie’s 28% and Libertarian Ken Moellman’s 16%. Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway has a decent 47-36 lead in his bid for another term over Republican Todd P’Pool. Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes has only a slim lead to retain the Secretary of State’s office for her party, 38-35 over Republican Bill Johnson. Democrat Adam Edelen is in a similar situation, leading Republican John Kemper III for State Auditor, 34-31. With Richie Farmer abandoning his post to run with Williams for Lt. Governor, Republican James Comer leads Democrat Bob Farmer for Agriculture Commissioner only 37-36.
“There’s some indication within these numbers that many Republicans are planning to stay home because their Gubernatorial candidate is so weak,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That could hurt the party’s chances for Secretary of State, Auditor, and Agriculture Commissioner.”
PPP surveyed 600 Kentucky voters from August 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 57%
Disapprove………… 30%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Williams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gatewood Galbraith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Steve Beshear, Republican David Williams,
and Independent Gatewood Galbraith. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 55%
David Williams ………………………………………… 28%
Gatewood Galbraith…………………………………. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jerry Abramson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richie Farmer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd P’Pool?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Todd
P’Pool. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 47%
Todd P’Pool…………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes and
Republican Bill Johnson. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 38%
Bill Johnson ……………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q11 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Todd Hollenbach, Republican K.C.
Crosbie, and Libertarian Ken Moellman. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Todd Hollenbach……………………………………… 43%
K.C. Crosbie …………………………………………… 28%
Ken Moellman…………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Adam Edelen and Republican John Kemper III.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Adam Edelen ………………………………………….. 34%
John Kemper III ………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%
Q13 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner
are Republican James Comer and Democrat
Bob Farmer. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
James Comer …………………………………………. 37%
Bob Farmer…………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. IfAfrican American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African American……………………………………… 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
