Raleigh, N.C. – The ink is barely dry on the 2010 midterm post-mortems, but candidates for the 2011 cycle are already in the thick of their campaigns. In Kentucky, two Republicans, entrepreneur Phil Moffett and State Senate President David Williams, have already selected running mates, and declared their candidacies to challenge incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear as early as this past July. They will need this lead time, because Beshear is relatively popular for a Democrat in such a conservative state, and neither Republican is very well known.
Beshear sports a solid 48-34 job approval rating, and has steadily improved since PPP found him at 38-35 in July and 43-37 in September. Unlike a lot of politicians who ran in 2010, Beshear is more liked by his own party than disliked by the opposing party, and independents like him almost as much as the overall electorate does.
Though not measured this time, in September, Kentuckians disliked Williams by almost a 2:1 margin, 16-33, and had almost no idea who Moffett was, with an inconsequential 4% saying they have a favorable view, and 15% a negative one.
Beshear currently leads Moffett, 45-26, and Williams by a slimmer 44-35. Where Beshear consistently dominates is among the small group of independents, leading Williams 38-25 and Moffett 37-20.
“Steve Beshear’s looking pretty good given what happened to Jack Conway in the state last week,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s favored for reelection but we see a lot of undecideds in these match ups with the Republicans not particularly well known and certainly a lot can change in a year.”
PPP surveyed 1,021 likely Kentucky voters from October 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican Phil
Moffett, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 45%
Phil Moffett……………………………………………… 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
David Williams, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 44%
David Williams ………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 56%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 53%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
