Polls

Berkley gaining on Heller, trails narrowly

| Tom Jensen

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Hellerberkley_0411 Raleigh, N.C. –
In PPP’s first look at the Nevada Senate race since Shelley Berkley and Dean Heller became official candidates for John Ensign’s seat, Berkley has more than halved the gap between her and her House colleague since January.  She trails only 47-43 after lagging by a 51-38 margin in a PPP poll three months ago.

Heller is very popular with independents.  51% of them see him favorably, and only 21% unfavorably.  But he has gotten a lot less popular with Democrats since January, going from an unusually close 22-31 favorable-unfavorable margin to only 16-48 now.  That is still healthy crossover support, especially combined with unanimity among Republicans and such strong support from unaffiliated voters.  But as Berkley has entered the scene, the trajectory is not in his favor to maintain that support.

In the previous poll, Heller took a full 20% of Berkley’s party’s vote, but now earns only 13%.  Keeping him in the lead are independents, who support him by an almost identical 56-29 spread, and Republicans, who have lined up a little more steadily behind him, 86-8 versus 85-12.  Because of a healthy number of Democrats crossing over to Heller and almost twice as many Democrats being undecided as Republicans, Berkley maintains only 76% of her party’s backing, an imbalance that gives Berkley room to grow as she becomes better known over the course of her candidacy.

Right now, voters are split pretty evenly on how they feel about Berkley personally, 34% with a favorable opinion, 31% unfavorable, and a 35% plurality not sure.  Only 28% have no opinion of the former statewide officeholder Heller.  Berkley has become only slightly less popular in the last three months; previously, she had a 34-29 grade.

“Shelley Berkley’s come out of the gate a lot stronger than Dean Heller since John Ensign officially announced he wasn’t going to run again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “It should be a very competitive race.”

PPP surveyed 491 Nevada voters from April 21st to 24th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Byron Georgiou?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dean Heller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q4 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Shelley Berkley and Republican
Dean Heller, who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 43%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Byron Georgiou and Republican
Dean Heller, who would you vote for?
Byron Georgiou……………………………………….. 28%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 John Ensign announced this week that he will
be resigning effective next month. Would you
like for Governor Sandoval to appoint his
replacement, or would you rather that there
was a special election to choose his
replacement?
Would like for Governor Sandoval to appoint
Senator Ensign’s replacement ……………………44%
Would rather that there was a special
election to choose Senator Ensign’s
replacement …………………………………………….53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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