Raleigh, N.C. – With yesterday’s release showing incumbent Colorado Senator Michael Bennet maintaining a small advantage in the Democratic primary against Andrew Romanoff heading into tonight’s tallying of the votes, the Democrats look set to pick their strongest candidate to go head-to-head against whichever of the Republican contenders survives the tight battle on their side. But while Jane Norton is hanging onto an even slimmer lead against Ken Buck, Buck could be a slightly more electable candidate, though he would still narrowly trail both Democrats at the outset.
If Romanoff comes from behind to beat Bennet, the general-election race will start out a tie, no matter who the Republicans pick. He trails Norton, 43-42, but tops Buck by the same margin. Romanoff was up on Norton, 43-41, and Buck, 41-38, in May. Bennet, however, would be favored over Norton, 46-40, and Buck, 46-43. Buck was down 45-39 to Bennet three months ago, but Norton has lost ground, after being down then only 44-41. All four are now viewed more negatively in voters’ eyes, particularly Buck, who has picked up steam in the head-to-heads despite going from 19-24 to 26-46.
While winning the primary would probably eventually close the gap, Romanoff currently gets significantly less of his own party’s vote against either Republican than does Bennet. Bennet also retains more of the Democrats in either of his potential matchups than do the Republicans of the GOP voters, whereas Romanoff trails both Republicans in that category. Surprisingly, Buck has consolidated his own base more than Norton has, despite lagging in the primary. Independents favor either Democrat by seven or nine points, except in the Bennet-Buck race, in which Buck leads 40-39, the same as in May, when the Republicans both won the unaffiliateds by a few points in the other matchups.
“The Colorado Senate race will be one of the closest in the country, and a lot could change, but right now Michael Bennet is looking pretty good,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,015 Colorado voters from August 7th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 43%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 50%
No opinion………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Michael Bennet’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jane Norton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Buck?
Favorable ………….. 26%
Unfavorable……….. 46%
Not sure ……………. 28%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Romanoff?
Favorable ………….. 35%
Unfavorable……….. 37%
Not sure ……………. 28%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican
Jane Norton, who would you vote for?
Michael Bennet ……. 46%
Jane Norton ………… 40%
Undecided…………… 14%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Ken
Buck, who would you vote for?
Michael Bennet ……………………………………….. 46%
Ken Buck ……………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Andrew Romanoff and Republican
Jane Norton, who would you vote for?
Andrew Romanoff ……………………………………. 42%
Jane Norton ……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Andrew Romanoff and Republican
Ken Buck, who would you vote for?
Andrew Romanoff ……………………………………. 43%
Ken Buck ……………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If an independent or some other party,
press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 4%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
