Raleigh, N.C. – The last time PPP surveyed Colorado, just before the August primary, appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet led Republican challenger Ken Buck, who was still a slight underdog in the primary against Jane Norton, by a 46-43 margin with registered voters. Despite most polls now showing a small Buck lead, PPP finds the race has little changed, the two candidates still in a statistical tie among likely voters, at 46-45.
President Obama won the state by almost 9 points in 2008, but voters who say they are likely to cast ballots next month gave Obama no edge over John McCain. In August, Obama voters outnumbered McCain supporters by 4 points. This movement largely explains the closure in the horse race. If the electorate reflected the 2008 turnout, Bennet would have a sizeable 50-41 lead. If it simply looked like the composition of the August set of registered but not necessarily frequent voters, Bennet would top Buck, 47-44.
Bennet had a slight party unity advantage previously, but the candidates have now equally locked up their bases. What is keeping Bennet treading water, though, despite the negative trends in the partisan makeup of the electorate, is that he has taken a 48-38 lead among independents, versus a 39-40 deficit two months ago. Undecided independents seem to be moving the Democrat’s way. Unlike in most states, independents have actually grown as a share of the voter set, while partisans have declined, and Republicans have only increased by two points—down one to Democrats in August, up one now—a good sign for Bennet in this nail-biter of a race.
Buck has moved voters almost exclusively in his favor, from a 26-46 favorability to 41-46 now. Voters have also slightly upped their opinions of Bennet when most politicians are becoming less popular, though he still sits at a 35-49 job performance mark.
“Given Barack Obama’s poor approval numbers in the state and his own unpopularity Michael Bennet should be in really bad shape,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Republicans really helped his cause by nominating a candidate with limited appeal to moderates.”
PPP surveyed 834 likely Colorado voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Senate are Democrat
Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Michael Bennet ……………………………………….. 46%
Ken Buck ……………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Michael Bennet’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Buck?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 46%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q7 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 36%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If an independent or some other party,
press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 5%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%