Polls

Begich leads challengers in re-election bid

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
The latest PPP poll has Senator Mark Begich leading each of his prospective Republican challengers in his bid to be reelected to the U.S. Senate. Begich leads Dan Sullivan 43/37, Mead Treadwell 42/37 and Joe Miller 45/32. In these matchups, 11-12% of voters are still undecided. Voters are closely divided on Begich’s job performance with 43% of voters approving of his job performance and 44% disapproving. Begich does particularly well with women in the state. Among women voters he leads Sullivan by 14 points, 47/33, Treadwell by 15 points 46/31, and Miller by 20 points, 48/28.

The Republican primary race has tightened some over the last three months, but Dan Sullivan maintains the lead with 35% to 29% for Mead Treadwell and 20% for Joe Miller. Treadwell has cut Sullivan’s lead by 8 points compared to May when the race stood at 40/26.

“Our polling for the likely Mark Begich/Dan Sullivan general election contest has been remarkably consistent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Begich has held a lead in the 4-7 point range on all four polls we’ve done over the last year.”

In the race for Governor incumbent Sean Parnell looks to be safe, leading Democrat Byron Mallott and Independent Bill Walker 37/22/20. Both challengers appear to be suffering from a lack of name recognition. More than half the electorate, 58%, are unsure of what they think of Mallott. Walker faces a similar battle, with 49% of voters having no opinion about him.

The tightest race on the ballot this year in Alaska could be on the August primary ballot where voters will decide whether or not to repeal SB 21. This measure is tied at 42% yes and 42% no while 16% of the electorate is still undecided. The fate of this measure may rest on which party’s voters show up on Election Day. Democrats support the repeal 65/22 but Republicans oppose it by nearly the same margin, 63/23.

PPP surveyed 673 Alaska voters, including 337 Republican primary voters, from July 31st to August 3rd. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.8% and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Dan
Sullivan, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska
Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring,
non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and
non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you
vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 43%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 37%
Mark Fish……………………………………………….. 4%
Vic Kohring …………………………………………….. 3%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 0%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q7 Horse race, with third-party candidates asked
whether they support Begich or Sullivan
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 45%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mead
Treadwell, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska
Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring,
non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and
non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you
vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 42%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 37%
Mark Fish……………………………………………….. 5%
Vic Kohring …………………………………………….. 3%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 0%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q9 Horse race, with third-party candidates asked
whether they support Begich or Treadwell
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 44%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Joe Miller,
Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence
Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated
candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated
candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 45%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 32%
Mark Fish……………………………………………….. 6%
Vic Kohring …………………………………………….. 4%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Byron Mallott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Sean Parnell, Democrat Byron
Mallott, independent Bill Walker, Libertarian
Carolyn Clift, and Constitution Party candidate
J.R. Myers, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 37%
Byron Mallott…………………………………………… 22%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 20%
Carolyn Clift ……………………………………………. 3%
J.R. Myers………………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q15 If you had to choose just between Republican
Sean Parnell and Democrat Byron Mallott for
Governor, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 48%
Byron Mallott…………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q16 If you had to choose just between Republican
Sean Parnell and independent Bill Walker for
Governor, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 41%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q17 On the August primary election ballot, there will
be a veto referendum on Senate Bill 21, also
known as the Oil and Gas Production Tax. If
the election was today would you vote ‘yes,’ to
repeal Senate Bill 21, or ‘no,’ to leave it in
place?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q18 On the November ballot, there will be an
Alaska Marijuana Legalization Measure. This
would allow people age 21 and older to
possess up to one ounce of marijuana and up
to six plants. It would make the manufacture,
sale, and possession of marijuana
paraphernalia legal. If the election was today,
would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on this measure?
Yes………………………………………………………… 44%
No …………………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q19 Also on the November ballot, there will be an
Alaska Minimum Wage Increase Measure. This
would increase the state’s minimum wage from
$7.75 per hour to $8.75 beginning in 2015 and
then to $9.75 in 2016. After that, it would be
adjusted based on inflation or remain $1 higher
than the federal minimum wage, whichever
amount is greater. If the election was today,
would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on this measure?
Yes………………………………………………………… 58%
No …………………………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q20 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 11%

Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q23 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 47%

Q24 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
Other……………………………………………………… 22%

Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%

Q26 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
John Jaramillo, Joe Miller, Dan Sullivan, and
Mead Treadwell, who would you vote for?
John Jaramillo…………………………………………. 2%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 20%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 35%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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