Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Sean Parnell both appear to be in strong positions for re-election in their 2014 Alaska Senate and governor’s races respectively, according to PPP’s latest poll.
Voters narrowly approve of Parnell’s job performance 46% to 44%, and he is much better known than his potential Democratic challengers. Parnell leads Ethan Berkowitz by 9 points (50/41), Scott McAdams by 18 points (52/34), Mike Navarre by 22 points (51/29) and Joe Paskvan by 26 points (51/25). Only 34% want Parnell to run for governor while 10% want him to run for Senate and 49% don’t want him to run for either office.
Voters approve of Begich’s job performance by a wider margin, 49% to 39%, and independents approve of Begich 54% to 32%. Begich also gets approval from 24% of Republican voters. If Parnell ran for Senate against Begich, the two would be tied at 48% each. Otherwise Begich leads Dan Sullivan by 6 points (47/41), Mead Treadwell by 8 points (47/39) and Sarah Palin by 16 points (54/38).
“Despite Alaska’s Republican tilt, Begich remains surprisingly popular going into his re-election campaign,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Begich and Parnell both have solid independent and crossover appeal with voters.”
If Parnell stays out of the Senate race, the strongest GOP challenger to Begich would be Anchorage mayor Sullivan. He polls the strongest against Begich and also leads the hypothetical Republican primary field with 29% support, followed by 23% for Treadwell, 20% for Leman, 19% for Miller and 9% not sure or supporting someone else.
In the GOP presidential primary, the race would is wide open but the favorite would be Marco Rubio with 18% support. Next in line would be Mike Huckabee (14%), Rand Paul (12%), Chris Christie (11%), Paul Ryan (10%), Sarah Palin and Jeb Bush (9%), Bobby Jindal (6%) and Rick Perry (1%). Palin remains extremely unpopular in her home state—59% of voters disapprove of her to just 34% who approve.
PPP surveyed 1,129 Alaska voters and 537 usual Republican primary voters from February 4th to 5th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-2.9% and +/-4.2% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ethan Berkowitz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott McAdams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Navarre?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Paskvan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Ethan
Berkowitz, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 50%
Ethan Berkowitz………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Scott
McAdams, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 52%
Scott McAdams……………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Mike
Navarre, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 51%
Mike Navarre ………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Joe
Paskvan, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 51%
Joe Paskvan …………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Loren Leman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Loren
Leman, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 50%
Loren Leman…………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Joe
Miller, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 58%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q19 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Sarah
Palin, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q20 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Sean
Parnell, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 48%
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q21 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Dan
Sullivan, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 47%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q22 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Mead
Treadwell, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 47%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q23 Would you like for Sean Parnell to run for
Governor, the Senate, or neither office next
year?
Governor………………………………………………… 34%
The Senate …………………………………………….. 10%
Neither office…………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q24 (Asked of 537 Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Loren Leman, Joe Miller,
Sean Parnell, Dan Sullivan, and Mead
Treadwell, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate next
year?
Loren Leman…………………………………………… 16%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 17%
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 24%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 19%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q25 (Asked of 537 Republican primary voters) If
Sean Parnell did not run for the Senate next
year, who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate, given the choices of
Loren Leman, Joe Miller, Dan Sullivan, and
Mead Treadwell?
Loren Leman…………………………………………… 20%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 19%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 29%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 23%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q26 (Asked of 537 Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin,
Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, and Paul
Ryan, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 9%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 6%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 9%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 12%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 18%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 10%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 21%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 46%
Q30 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
Other……………………………………………………… 22%
Q31 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
