Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats are headed for a victory in tomorrow’s special election to replace Gabby Giffords in the House, but the relevance of the result in Arizona to much of anything else appears limited.
Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.
We find that the likely electorate for tomorrow’s election supported Barack Obama over John McCain 50-44. McCain actually won the district by a 48-42 margin in 2008. This, along with the special election in New York’s 26th Congressional District last May, is one of only two races recently where we’ve found a likely electorate significantly more Democratic than the Presidential one in 2008, and it suggests Democrats are unusually motivated to come out and vote to keep Giffords’ seat in their hands.
Despite the likely Democratic victory tomorrow Barack Obama’s approval rating in this district is only 44%, with 50% of voters disapproving of him. And even though Barber leads by 12, likely voters only say they want Democrats to have control of Congress by a 48-44 margin. That’s an unusually large gap between the horse race and who voters want to have control, and again speaks to the unusual circumstances surrounding this race.
Barber appears to have the race pretty much already locked up. 57% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots, and with that group Barber enjoys a 21 point advantage at 58-37. People planning to vote tomorrow are much more evenly split with 46% for Barber and 45% for Kelly.
“Democrats are likely to win this race comfortably tomorrow,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the unusual circumstances of the contest make its relevance to any other contest later this year pretty limited. It’s not often you have a special election to replace an incumbent who resigned with a 67% favorability rating.”
PPP surveyed 1,058 likely voters on June 9th and 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the special election for
Congress are Democrat Ron Barber,
Republican Jesse Kelly, and Green Party
candidate Charlie Manolakis. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Ron Barber …………………………………………….. 53%
Jesse Kelly……………………………………………… 41%
Charlie Manolakis ……………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot, or do you
plan to vote on Election Day?
Already cast your ballot…………………………….. 57%
Plan to vote on Election Day……………………… 43%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Barber?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jesse Kelly?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Republicans are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or
Congressional Republicans to lead the country
in the right direction?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Congressional Republicans ………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Generally speaking, would you rather that
Democrats or Republicans had control of the
US House?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 48%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gabrielle Giffords?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%