Raleigh, N.C. – Almost every time the North Carolina General Assembly goes back into session, the Republicans’ popularity slips, and the Democrats’ goes up by comparison. That is the case again in PPP’s latest poll of the state. Already less popular than their Democratic counterparts before, the GOP majority is now only seen favorably by 29% of Tar Heel voters and unfavorably by 48%, three points worse on the margin than the 34-50 measured in late October. More of their own voters see them negatively (17%) than Democrats see them positively (13%). Democrats are also far more down on them (70%) than Republicans positive (57%). Independents fall at 22-44.
Legislative Democrats are also unpopular, but not nearly as much as the Republicans in charge. Their favorability spread is 36-41, 14 points better than the GOP and up two points from the previous poll’s 37-44. In her re-election bid, Gov. Bev Perdue may be able to employ a mirror strategy as President Obama, who plans to run against a do-nothing Congress. 44% of voters trust her more to lead the state, while 40% trust legislative Republicans more. That is up from a 43-42 lead for the GOP in the last poll.
Voters frown on the Republican leadership without even knowing who the man in charge of the lower chamber is. Speaker Thom Tillis is a non-entity to 81% of voters, and those who say they do have an opinion on him personally fall at 5% favorable and 14% unfavorable. In a look three years down the road to the 2014 Senate race, if Tillis were to challenge freshman Kay Hagan, he would fall to her by 12 points if the election were right now (46-34). With so few voters familiar with him, and even 22% not sure how they feel about Hagan’s job performance, Tillis essentially serves as a generic Republican and Hagan as somewhat of a generic Democrat. More Republicans are undecided than Democrats, and 11% of each party crosses over for the other candidate. Hagan has a 37-34 lead with independents. Hagan’s approval spread stands at 40-37 now, seven points better than her recently re-elected senior colleague Richard Burr (33-37).
PPP surveyed 865 North Carolina voters from December 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic…………. .44%
Republican…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .29%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .40%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 44%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you support or oppose the Racial Justice
Act?
Support ………………………………………………….. 23%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan…………. .46%
Thom Tillis …………. .34%
Undecided………….. .19%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q16
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 24%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
