Raleigh, N.C. – Michele Bachmann’s momentum continues to build and she’s taken first place by the smallest of margins on PPP’s newest national Presidential poll. 21% of Republican primary voters say she’s their top choice to 20% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Rick Perry, 11% for Herman Cain, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Tim Pawlenty, and 3% for Jon Huntsman.
Bachmann’s rise has been fueled by her appeal to voters on the far right- and their skepticism about Romney. Romney has the lead with centrist Republicans (23-17) and with those defining themselves as only somewhat right of center (24-17). But among ‘very conservative’ voters only 48% have a positive opinion of Romney to 34% who view him negatively, weak numbers, and Bachmann’s capitalizing on that with a 26-15 lead over Romney, who’s in third place with that group of voters.
Oddly enough one of the best things that could happen to Romney right now is the late entry of Sarah Palin into the race. In a ballot test including her as a candidate he leads the way with 20% to 16% for Bachmann, 12% for Palin, and 11% for Perry. 44% of Palin’s voters say they would vote for Bachmann if Palin didn’t run, compared to only 6% who say they would otherwise vote for Romney. So basically a Palin candidacy would take a large bite out of Bachmann’s support with virtually no impact on Romney.
Republicans don’t want Palin to run though. Just 29% think she should enter the race at this point to 53% opposed to that idea. Even among those voters who see her in a positive light only 45% think she should make a White House bid.
“For the last month all the momentum in the Republican Presidential race has been on Michele Bachmann’s side,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether she’ll be able to sustain that if other conservatives like Rick Perry and Sarah Palin end up joining the race.”
PPP surveyed 730 Republican primary voters from July 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 16%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 21%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney,
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Would you be willing or unwilling to vote for a
Presidential candidate who supported a law at
the state level mandating that people have
health insurance?
Willing ……………………………………………………. 17%
Unwilling ………………………………………………… 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 Do you want Sarah Palin to run for President or
not?
Want her to …………………………………………….. 29%
Don’t want her to……………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 Do you think Sarah Palin is good or bad for the
image of the Republican Party?
Good……………………………………………………… 57%
Bad ……………………………………………………….. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Do you have a more favorable opinion of John
Boehner or Eric Cantor?
John Boehner …………………………………………. 41%
Eric Cantor……………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q13 Do you have a more favorable opinion of Jim
DeMint or Mitch McConnell?
Jim DeMint……………………………………………… 25%
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 80%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
