Raleigh, N.C. – Since the last Republican presidential debate, Michelle Bachmann has surged throughout the country and has become Mitt Romney’s chief rival for the nomination. Nowhere is this more evident than in Pennsylvania. When PPP last polled the Republican race in Pennsylvania, Mike Huckabee led Romney 23-16. Now Bachmann has filled the void that Huckabee left and leads the field with 24% to 17% for Romney, 14% for favorite son Rick Santorum, 10% for Herman Cain, 9% for Ron Paul, 8% for Rick Perry, 6% for Newt Gingrich, 3% for Jon Huntsman, and just 1% for Tim Pawlenty. Bachmann claims her largest lead with very conservative voters where she takes 30% to Romney’s 11%. However, Bachmann goes nowhere with moderates, taking only 6% to Romney’s 33%. Luckily for Bachmann, moderates make up only 16% of the GOP electorate.
With Santorum out of the race, Bachmann leads with 27% to Romney’s 20%, Perry and Paul’s 10%, Cain and Gingrich’s 9%, Huntsman’s 3%, and Pawlenty’s 2%. If Palin enters the race, Bachmann still leads with 23% to 18% for Palin, 14% for Romney, 11% for Perry, 7% for Cain and Paul, 5% for Gingrich, and 3% for Huntsman and Pawlenty.
While Santorum can’t do better than third place in his home state in a race for president, his party would be willing to give him a chance at taking his old seat back. In the Senate primary, Santorum overwhelms the field taking 47% of the vote to 9% for Jake Corman and Tim Murphy, 7% for Jim Gerlach, 5% for Laureen Cummings, 4% for Charlie Dent, 1% for Marc Scaringi, and 0% for Kim Ward. If Santorum doesn’t run for Senate, the field would be wide open as no one else is recognized by more than a third of GOP voters.
“Pennsylvania Republicans are sending a pretty clear message to Rick Santorum: we don’t think you’re Presidential material,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But they’d support him for a rematch against Bob Casey.”
PPP surveyed 376 Pennsylvania Republican Primary voters from June 30th to July 5th. No interviews were conducted on July 3rd or 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jake Corman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Laureen Cummings?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Gerlach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Scaringi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%
Q12 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, Mitt
Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 24%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 1%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q13 If Rick Santorum didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 27%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q14 What if Sarah Palin ran for President, and the
candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman
Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah
Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and
Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 23%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q15 Given the choices of Jake Corman, Laureen
Cummings, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Tim
Murphy, Rick Santorum, Marc Scaringi, and
Kim Ward, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate next
year?
Jake Corman ………………………………………….. 9%
Laureen Cummings………………………………….. 5%
Charlie Dent……………………………………………. 4%
Jim Gerlach…………………………………………….. 7%
Tim Murphy…………………………………………….. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 47%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 1%
Kim Ward……………………………………………….. 0%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 18%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 50%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
