Raleigh, N.C. – As is true nationally, Michele Bachmann has risen to become Mitt Romney’s chief competitor for the presidential nomination in North Carolina. In June, Romney led Herman Cain 25-21 with Palin out of the race. Cain has lost more than half his support, but Bachmann has risen in his place, and Romney now holds only a 23-22 lead over Bachmann. Bachmann is followed by Rick Perry with 14%, Cain and Newt Gingrich with 9%, Ron Paul with 6%, Tim Pawlenty with 5%, and Jon Huntsman with just 2%. Bachmann has a modest 26-17 edge over Romney with very conservative voters, though Romney makes up for this with a 30-18 lead among somewhat conservatives. If Palin makes a run for the White House, it has little effect on the race in North Carolina. Romney still leads with 18% to Bachmann’s 17%, Perry’s 14%, Palin’s 12%, Cain and Gingrich’s 8%, Paul’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 4%, and Huntsman’s 1%.
The situation is similar in New Jersey, where Romney leads Bachmann 22-21. Bachmann is followed by Paul at 11%, Perry at 10%, Cain at 8%, Gingrich at 7%, Pawlenty at 5%, and Huntsman at 3%. Bachmann achieves strong support despite moderates making up 27% of the New Jersey GOP electorate, even more than the 23% who are very conservative. While Romney holds a 34-16 lead among moderates, Bachmann holds a slim lead with somewhat conservatives, 21-19, and leads Romney with very conservatives, 26-18. On the other hand, if Chris Christie gets in, he cleans up, taking 38% of the vote to Romney’s 13%, Bachmann’s 12%, Paul’s 9%, Perry’s 8%, Cain’s 5%, Gingrich’s 4%, Pawlenty’s 2%, and Huntsman’s 1%.
In the race for Senate in New Jersey, GOP voters are prepared to give Tom Kean, Jr., another shot. Kean leads with 36% of the vote to 10% for Kim Guadagno, 9% for Woody Johnson, 7% for Mike Doherty, 4% for Anna Little, 3% for Joseph Kyrillos, and 2% for Tim Smith. Kean’s lead is built in part on superior name recognition, as he is the only candidate who is recognized by more than half the electorate.
PPP surveyed 400 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters from July 7th to July 10th, with a +/-4.9% margin of error, and 300 usual New Jersey Republican primary voters from July 15th to July 18th, with a +/-5.7% margin of error. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
North Carolina Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 17%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 22%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q11
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
New Jersey Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Doherty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Guadagno?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Woody Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Kean, Jr.?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joseph Kyrillos?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q11 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich,
Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you most
like to see as the Republican candidate for
President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 5%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 38%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 4%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q12 If Chris Christie didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 21%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q13 What if Sarah Palin ran for President, and the
candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman
Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah
Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and
Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q14 Given the choices of Mike Doherty, Kim
Guadagno, Woody Johnson, Tom Kean, Jr.,
Joseph Kyrillos, Anna Little, and Tim Smith,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate next year?
Mike Doherty…………………………………………… 7%
Kim Guadagno………………………………………… 10%
Woody Johnson ………………………………………. 9%
Tom Kean, Jr…………………………………………… 36%
Joseph Kyrillos………………………………………… 3%
Anna Little………………………………………………. 4%
Tim Smith……………………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 30%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
