Raleigh, N.C. – Despite moving to a likely-voter model, PPP shows last night’s GOP designee for U.S. Senate, Kelly Ayotte, holding onto only a 47-43 lead over Democrat Paul Hodes in New Hampshire. PPP’s last poll of registered voters showed Ayotte was on top, 45-42.
Ayotte had previously held a party-unity advantage over Hodes, but Hodes has now reversed that, getting 85% of likely Democratic voters to Ayotte’s 83% of the GOP. Ayotte leads overall because of the seven- to nine-point pro-Republican enthusiasm gap and because the state has a large proportion of independents (30% of the electorate), who are leaning toward the Republican, 51-37, up from 46-37 in July. President Obama won the state by more than nine points in 2008, but this year’s electorate would have resulted in a tie between him and John McCain.
Unlike in Delaware, there was no clear difference between the GOP candidates in terms of electability. Jim Bender and Ovide Lamontagne, who mounted a huge surge late in the primary campaign, would also have started out with small leads over Hodes. Ayotte had looked like the surest bet until recently. In an April survey, Ayotte topped Hodes by seven, with all but one of the other Republicans behind the Democrat.
But while Ayotte had cast herself as a nonpartisan moderate, looking toward the general election, Lamontagne’s strong challenge from the right forced her to tout Sarah Palin’s endorsement in the primary, and her favorability rating has precipitously declined from 34-24 in April to 36-39 in July to 35-47 now. Though Ayotte has slightly strengthened her standing in the horse race with her own party’s voters and with unaffiliateds, 47% of Granite State voters think the Republican Party is too conservative, and by a 52-18 margin, they say they are less likely, rather than more likely, to vote for a Palin endorsee.
“Kelly Ayotte’s negatives have doubled over the last five months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She still starts out favored in the general election but this has the potential to be a very close race.”
PPP surveyed 1,959 likely New Hampshire voters on September 11th and 12th. The margin of error is +/-2.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Judd
Gregg’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Hodes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kelly Ayotte?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Binnie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Bender?
Favorable ………….. 26%
Unfavorable……….. 33%
Not sure ……………. 41%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Paul Hodes and Republican Kelly
Ayotte, who would you vote for?
Paul Hodes …………………………………………….. 43%
Kelly Ayotte…………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Paul Hodes and Republican Bill
Binnie, who would you vote for?
Paul Hodes …………………………………………….. 43%
Bill Binnie……………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Paul Hodes and Republican Jim
Bender, who would you vote for?
Paul Hodes …………………………………………….. 43%
Jim Bender……………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%