Raleigh, N.C. – Kelly Ayotte’s had a quite a dramatic fall from PPP’s last poll of the New Hampshire Republican primary for Senate, when she led Ovide Lamontagne by 39 points. But Lamontagne may have run out of time to catch up. Ayotte leads with 37% to 30% for Lamontagne, 13% for Bill Binnie, and 12% for Jim Bender.
If Ayotte survives where many GOP establishment candidates have failed in Senate primaries this year it will be because she managed to be the Tea Party candidate herself. With the third of Republican primary voters who describe themselves as members of that movement she leads Lamontagne 38-37, a contrast to the wallopings folks like Trey Grayson, Sue Lowden, Lisa Murkowski, and likely Mike Castle have received with that group.
Ayotte builds on her running even with the Tea Party folks with a 39-17 lead over Lamontagne with moderate voters. Binnie actually finishes second with that group at 19%.
Although Binnie is best case scenario going to finish a distant third his numbers in this poll say a lot about where the Republican Party is headed. Generally viewed as the moderate candidate in the race, 55% of GOP primary voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 26% who see him favorably. That is telling when it comes to the ability of centrists to make their way in Republican primaries this year.
Lamontagne actually has the best net favorability of the candidates at +40 (56/16), followed by Ayotte at +29 (56/27), and Bender at +23 (42/19).
“It looks like Kelly Ayotte will hang on but the momentum has certainly been in Ovide Lamontagne’s direction so an upset is not out of the question,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Our general election polling finds little difference between how Ayotte and Lamontagne do against Paul Hodes so it may not matter from an electability standpoint.”
PPP surveyed 1,134 likely Republican primary voters on September 11th and 12th. The margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The Republican candidates for Senate are Tom
Alciere, Kelly Ayotte, Gerard Beloin, Jim
Bender, Bill Binnie, Dennis Lamare, and Ovide
Lamontagne. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for?
Tom Alciere …………………………………………….. 1%
Kelly Ayotte…………………………………………….. 37%
Gerard Beloin………………………………………….. 1%
Jim Bender……………………………………………… 12%
Bill Binnie……………………………………………….. 13%
Dennis Lamare ……………………………………….. 1%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kelly Ayotte?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Binnie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Bender?
Favorable ………….. 42%
Unfavorable……….. 19%
Not sure ……………. 39%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Frank Emiro, Jack Kimball, John Stephen, and
Karen Testerman. If the primary was today,
who would you vote for?
Frank Emiro ……………………………………………. 4%
Jack Kimball……………………………………………. 24%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 45%
Karen Testerman …………………………………….. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Emiro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kimball?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Stephen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Testerman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q11 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate who was endorsed by Sarah Palin,
or would it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 31%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 22%
Makes no difference ………………………………… 47%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 30%
Too conservative……………………………………… 17%
About right ……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 0%
Republican……………………………………………… 67%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Conservative…………………………………………… 67%
