As Obama’s popularity falls, potential Republican presidential candidates’ popularity
rises. Every Republican candidate we polled this month saw a peak in favorability.

In individual horse race, the gap closed between Obama and his potential Republican
competitors this month. This is the first month since we began polling on the 2012
election that Obama is behind or tied with a majority of the Republican candidates. Mitt
Romney has the strongest lead 46:43, followed by Mick Huckabee 47:45.

The Republicans each found more support when matched against Obama than in
individual favorability ratings. While only 32% of voters have a favorable opinion of
Romney, 46% of voters choose him over Obama. Obama however, maintained steady
support throughout the poll, reflective of voters’ initial approval ratings. The consistency suggests voters are reacting to their opinion of Obama, not that of the challenger.

Obama’s dropping approval ratings seems to be largely due to waning support amongst
Independents. In 2008, Obama won the support of Independents by an 8 point margin.
Amongst Independents this month, Obama lost to every potential challenger. For
example, Independents preferred Romney to Obama 48:35.

“This poll tells us less about 2012 and more about current public opinion of Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters are unsatisfied with Obama and are calling for change.”

PPP surveyed 667 American voters from July 9-12. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at
(888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 45%
Disapprove………… 52%
Not Sure……………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 37%
Unfavorable ………… 28%
Not Sure……………… 35%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 11%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 26%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jan Brewer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 63%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 35%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama, who
would you vote for?
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Sarah Palin and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Newt Gingrich and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Jan Brewer and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Jan Brewer……………………………………………… 36%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/don’t remember ………………….. 9%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%

Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 17%