Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Arkansas Senate poll continues to find the race within the margin of error, as all of our polls this entire cycle have found. Tom Cotton is at 41% to 39% for Mark Pryor with Green Party candidate Mark Swaney and Libertarian Nathan LaFrance receiving 4 and 3 points respectively. In the Senate race 14% of voters remain undecided.
“Every single poll PPP has done of this race has found the candidates within three points of each other,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s possible someone will break away in the closing stretch but for now it looks like it’s going down to the wire.”
Republicans hold modest leads in all the statewide races. In the race for Governor Asa Hutchinson leads Ross 43/38 with 12% undecided, in that race the Green Party candidate, J. Joshua Drake, receives 4% of the vote and Libertarian Frank Gilbert receives 3%.
In the other statewide races Democrats trail Republicans in every contest, although many voters are still undecided. For Lt. Governor Republican Tim Griffin leads Democrat John Burkhalter 41/32. For Secretary of State Republican Mark Martin leads Democrat Susan Inman 39/33. In the race for Attorney General Republican Leslie Rutledge also leads her Democratic opponent, Nate Steel, 38/32. The race for State Auditor has a four point margin where Republican Andrea Lea leads Democrat Regina Stewart Hampton 35/31. For State Treasurer, Republican Dennis Milligan leads Democrat Karen Garcia 36/31. For State Land Commissioner Democrat Mark Robertson trails Republican John Thurston 29/40.
Statewide Democrats and their policies are not universally unpopular. Term-limited Democratic Governor Mike Beebe has excellent approval ratings, with 60% of voters approving and only 23% disapproving of his job performance. Additionally, the Arkansas Minimum Wage ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage above the federal minimum wage has widespread support, 63% of voters support it while 29% of voters oppose it.
PPP surveyed 1066 Arkansas voters from August 1st to 3rd. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.0 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Pryor’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Cotton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Pryor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are
Democrat Mark Pryor, Republican Tom Cotton,
Green party candidate Mark Swaney, and
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mark Pryor ……………………………………………… 39%
Tom Cotton …………………………………………….. 41%
Mark Swaney ………………………………………….. 4%
Nathan LaFrance …………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Horse race, with Swaney and LaFrance
supporters asked who they would support
between Pryor and Cotton
Mark Pryor ……………………………………………… 41%
Tom Cotton …………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mike Beebe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 60%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Ross?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Asa Hutchinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mike Ross, Republican Asa
Hutchinson, Green Party candidate J. Joshua
Drake, and Libertarian Frank Gilbert, who
would you vote for?
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 38%
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 43%
J. Joshua Drake………………………………………. 4%
Frank Gilbert …………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 Horse race, with Drake and Gilbert supporters
asked who they would support between Ross
and Hutchinson
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 40%
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat John Burkhalter, Republican Tim
Griffin, and Libertarian Christopher Olson. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
John Burkhalter……………………………………….. 32%
Tim Griffin ………………………………………………. 41%
Christopher Olson……………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Susan Inman, Republican Mark
Martin, and Libertarian Jacob Holloway. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Susan Inman…………………………………………… 33%
Mark Martin…………………………………………….. 39%
Jacob Holloway……………………………………….. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q14 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Nate Steel, Republican Leslie
Rutledge, and Libertarian Aaron Cash. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Nate Steel ………………………………………………. 32%
Leslie Rutledge ……………………………………….. 38%
Aaron Cash…………………………………………….. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q15 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Regina Stewart Hampton, Republican Andrea
Lea, and Libertarian Brian Leach. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Regina Stewart Hampton………………………….. 31%
Andrea Lea …………………………………………….. 35%
Brian Leach…………………………………………….. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q16 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Karen Garcia, Republican Dennis
Milligan, and Libertarian Chris Hayes. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Karen Garcia…………………………………………… 31%
Dennis Milligan ……………………………………….. 36%
Chris Hayes ……………………………………………. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q17 The candidates for State Land Commissioner
are Democrat Mark Robertson, Republican
John Thurston, and Libertarian Elvis Presley. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Mark Robertson ………………………………………. 29%
John Thurston…………………………………………. 40%
Elvis Presley …………………………………………… 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q18 The Arkansas Minimum Wage Initiative would
increase the state’s minimum wage from $6.25
to $7.50 per hour in 2015, $8 an hour in 2016,
and $8.50 an hour in 2017. If the election was
today, would you vote for or against the
Arkansas Minimum Wage Initiative?
For ………………………………………………………… 63%
Against…………………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q19 The Arkansas Alcoholic Beverage Amendment
would legalize the sale, manufacture, and
transportation of alcohol statewide in Arkansas.
If the election was today, would you vote for or
against the Arkansas Alcoholic Beverage
Amendment?
For ………………………………………………………… 52%
Against…………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q20 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 9%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 31%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q27 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
