Raleigh, N.C. – The Tea Party is hungry to get its favored candidates nominated at every possible level of government. Their success in ousting several establishment Republicans in 2010 primaries could only make them more motivated to put up further challengers in 2012. But if he decides to go for another term next year, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl should feel pretty comfortable he will not be among the far right’s targets.
Kyl’s base gives him a healthy 70-16 approval rating. 68% of Arizona’s GOP primary voters see his views as “about right,” and only 9% think them too liberal. Even among the 70% who call themselves conservatives, only 11% say that, while three-quarters think him “about right.”
If Kyl were to face a generic “more conservative challenger” next spring, he would survive that test with 46% of the vote. Only 30% would support his unnamed primary opponent, and almost as many, 24%, are not sure. There is some danger with conservative voters here, though. They go for Kyl by only a 41-38 margin (versus 55-15 with the 27% of self-labeled moderates). Even though Kyl is seen as sufficiently right of center, if you ask conservatives if they would support someone to the right of even the most strident right-winger, they will generally say “yes.”
“These numbers say a lot about how hard it is to be an establishment Republican right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Only 9% of Republicans think Kyl’s too liberal yet 30% still want to replace him with someone more conservative. With a significant chunk of the GOP base it is simply impossible to be conservative enough.”
Arizona’s presidential primary is a wide-open race between the usual top four. Mitt Romney emerges as the favorite at this point, though narrowly, with 23% of the vote. That bests Mike Huckabee’s 19%, and more (16%) are undecided than support any of the other candidates. Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich each capture 15%, with the usual suspects in low single digits: Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Mitch Daniels at 2%, and John Thune at 1%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Arizona Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic
Senator Jon Kyl’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .70%
Disapprove…………. .16%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you think Jon Kyl is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 9%
Too conservative……………………………………… 10%
About right ……………………………………………… 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the Republican primary for Senate next year
was between Jon Kyl and a more conservative
challenger, who would you vote for?
Jon Kyl…………………………………………………… 46%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Conservative…………………………………………… 70%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
