Raleigh, N.C. – Though always a remote possibility in a typically red state, Democrats have been hoping to stave off further erosion of their Senate majority by taking over a seat or two from the GOP. One of those seats could be Jon Kyl’s in Arizona. But even in a marquee matchup with former governor and current Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Kyl would be favored by a double-digit margin if he decides to stand for a fourth term in 2012.
Kyl leads Napolitano, 53-41. His narrowest advantage is to Attorney General and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Terry Goddard, 50-40. But he would beat former congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick, 51-35, and Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, 54-33.
Napolitano rallies Democrats to some extent, but really turns Republicans off, so Kyl wins his highest share of the GOP vote (91%) versus her. Goddard holds him to only 82% of Republicans, but still suffers from a party unity gap, with over a fifth of Democrats going the other way. In fact, Kyl takes 15% (versus Napolitano) to 21% (against Goddard) of the opposite party’s support, with the Democrats earning only 4% (Gordon) to 9% (Goddard) of the GOP. Independents, who make up a rather large quarter of the electorate, favor Kyl by one (versus Napolitano) to eight points (against Gordon) except when he faces Goddard, who takes unaffiliateds, 48-43.
Kyl has a solid 47-40 job approval rating, putting him in the top half of the 77 senators PPP has measured over the past year. A quarter of Democrats like what he is doing in D.C., and the only note of caution for him is that independents disapprove by a 35-50 margin. Napolitano is not surprisingly well known but surprisingly not well liked, with a 40-55 favorability margin, nearly as bad as the far lesser-known Gordon’s 19-37. Goddard (43-35) is as well liked as Kyl; a fifth of Republicans like him. Kirkpatrick (24-21) is the least familiar to voters.
“Between Kyl’s relative popularity and a weak Democratic bench this does not look like a great pick up opportunity for Democrats next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “They probably need Kyl to retire in order to have a really good chance of winning this seat.”
PPP surveyed 599 Arizona voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Kyl’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Goddard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Gordon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Kirkpatrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Janet Napolitano?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Jon Kyl and Democrat Terry
Goddard, who would you vote for?
Jon Kyl…………………………………………………… 50%
Terry Goddard…………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Jon Kyl and Democrat Phil Gordon,
who would you vote for?
Jon Kyl…………………………………………………… 54%
Phil Gordon…………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Jon Kyl and Democrat Ann
Kirkpatrick, who would you vote for?
Jon Kyl…………………………………………………… 51%
Ann Kirkpatrick………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Jon Kyl and Democrat Janet
Napolitano, who would you vote for?
Jon Kyl…………………………………………………… 53%
Janet Napolitano……………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
