Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama won’t be seeing any backlash in Arizona for his recent declaration of support for gay marriage. 77% of Arizona voters believe gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions. And support isn’t just limited to liberal voters—in addition to 94% support from Democrats, 63% of Republicans and 83% of independents back gay marriages or civil unions.
79% of Hispanics support either gay marriages or civil unions, putting to rest theories suggesting Obama would lose support from the mostly Catholic demographic for his new stance on gay marriage. In addition, 85% of the other racial minorities which make up about 11% of the electorate support either marriage rights or civil unions for gay couples.
But not all is well for Obama in Arizona. Just 32% of Arizonans believe the state will be a swing state in the upcoming general election. At 43%, Democrats aren’t too optimistic that Obama will be competitive in a state that has gone Republican 14 out of the last 15 presidential elections. Just 29% of independents believe Arizona will be a swing state.
Hispanics, a demographic Obama must carry if he is to steal Arizona, are similarly skeptical of Arizona’s swing-state status at 47%. Only 32% of Obama’s key young voters (aged 18 to 29) believe Arizona will be a swing state.
54% of Arizonans have a favorable opinion and 30% an unfavorable view of their capital Phoenix. This isn’t much different from the 49% favorability rating the state’s largest city received in a national poll released in mid-April. Arizonans like Tucson almost as much (50-27).
The most favorably viewed city in the state is Flagstaff, with 64% seeing it favorably and only 8% unfavorably. The least favorably viewed of the four cities PPP tested is Yuma (31-24).
Paul Babeu, Sheriff of Pinal County and renowned illegal immigration opponent, has a 23% favorability rating among state voters. 34% see him unfavorably. Babeu ended his bid for Congress two weeks ago after admitting an affair with another man.
PPP surveyed 500 Arizona voters from May 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you think Arizona will be a swing state in
the Presidential race this year, or not?
It will be………………………………………………….. 32%
It will not be…………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Babeu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………38%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Phoenix?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Tucson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Flagstaff?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Yuma?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q8 Are you interested in the Phoenix Coyotes’
playoff run, or not?
Are interested in the Coyotes…………………….. 35%
Are not …………………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 18%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
