Raleigh, N.C. – The Nevada Senate race is headed for a photo finish with Sharron Angle leading Harry Reid just 47-46 on PPP’s final poll of the race. The survey indicates that Reid takes a 50-46 lead with early voters into election day but that those still planning to vote tomorrow are intending to support Angle by a 48-40 margin.
Democratic voters in Nevada really hold Reid’s fate in their hands by whether they show up at the polls tomorrow or not. Angle’s 1 point lead is built on an electorate that supported Barack Obama by only 4 points in 2008, in contrast to his actual 12 point victory in the state. That means a lot of Democratic leaning voters aren’t planning to vote tomorrow and if even a small percentage of them can be rousted out of complacency to go vote for Reid it might be enough to put him over the top.
Both candidates are getting just a shade under 80% from voters in their own party. Angle has the slight overall advantage because she’s ahead 52-38 with independents. Regardless of who wins the election tomorrow Nevada will have a Senator it’s not particularly fond of. Only 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Angle to 53% with a negative one and Reid’s approval rating is just 42% with 55% of voters disapproving of him.
There’s a lot more clarity in the Governor’s race: Brian Sandoval is going to be the next Governor of Nevada. He leads Rory Reid 55-44. Sandoval has proven to be by far and away the most appealing candidate on the ballot in the state this year- 56% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to only 33% who view him negatively. He’s winning independents by 23 points and taking 22% of the Democratic vote.
“The Nevada Senate election is really going to hinge on whether thousands of Obama voters who haven’t been particularly engaged with this year’s election end up turning out tomorrow or not,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Reid has a higher ceiling of support than Angle and will win if enough of those people show up but whether they will is an open question.”
PPP surveyed 682 likely Nevada voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Republican
Sharron Angle, Tea Party of Nevada candidate
Scott Ashjian, Independent American Party
candidate Tim Fasano, independent Michael
Haines, independent Jesse Holland,
independent Jeffrey Reeves, Democrat Harry
Reid, and independent Wil Stand. If the
election was today who would you vote for, or
would you vote for none of these candidates?
Sharron Angle…………………………………………. 47%
Scott Ashjian…………………………………………… 3%
Tim Fasano…………………………………………….. 1%
Michael Haines ……………………………………….. 1%
Jesse Holland …………………………………………. 0%
Jeffrey Reeves………………………………………… 0%
Harry Reid………………………………………………. 46%
Wil Stand ……………………………………………….. 0%
None of these candidates …………………………. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sharron Angle?
Favorable ………….. 44%
Unfavorable……….. 53%
Not sure ……………. 3%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry
Reid’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Rory Reid and Republican Brian Sandoval. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Rory Reid……………………………………………….. 44%
Brian Sandoval ……………………………………….. 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rory Reid?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 51%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Sandoval?
Favorable ………….. 56%
Unfavorable……….. 33%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q7 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Travis Barrick and Democrat
Catherine Cortez Masto. If the election was
today, who would you vote for? If Travis
Barrick, press 1. If Catherine Cortez Masto,
press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Barrick …………………………………………………… 39%
Masto…………………………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall had
been Democrat Harry Reid and Republican
Danny Tarkanian, who would you have voted
for?
Harry Reid………………………………………………. 39%
Danny Tarkanian……………………………………… 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate were just
Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry
Reid, who would you vote for?
Sharron Angle ……. 48%
Harry Reid…………. 49%
Undecided…………. 3%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jim
Gibbons’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Ensign’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q14 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 41%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q19 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 60%
No …………………………………………………………. 40%