Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Mark Amodei appears to be headed for an easy victory in Tuesday’s special election to replace Dean Heller as the Representative from Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. He’s polling at 50% to 37% for Democrat Kate Marshall with 2 third party candidates combining for 8% and 5% of voters still undecided.
When PPP polled this race three weeks ago it was considerably more competitive with Amodei ahead only 43-42. Marshall had 2 things going for her then that are no longer the case. The first was that Democrats were more enthused about her, giving her 86% of their votes, than Republicans were about Amodei who had only 77% of the GOP vote locked down. That has now flipped with 83% of Republicans planning to vote for Amodei while only 74% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Marshall.
The second big thing that has changed is who’s planning to come out and vote on Tuesday. On the first poll 48% of those surveyed reported having voted for Barack Obama in 2008, almost identical to the 49% of the vote he received in the district. Now only 43% of those planning to vote in the election self report having voted for Obama, an indication that an enthusiasm gap has developed and Republicans are more likely to turn out than Democrats. That’s something that’s already been seen in the early voting
numbers for the race.
Marshall has not proven to be a strong candidate. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 50% with a negative one. But she’s also losing because of things out of her control. Barack Obama’s approval rating in the district is only 33% with 59% of voters unhappy with the job he’s doing. It would be very difficult for Democrats to win any open seat race where the President’s that unpopular.
“It looks like Democrats will go 0 for 2 in Tuesday’s special elections,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Nevada race has shifted sharply away from the party over the last month.”
PPP surveyed 629 likely voters from September 9th to 11th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the special election for
Congress are Republican Mark Amodei,
Independent American Timothy Fasano,
Independent Helmuth Lehmann, and Democrat
Kate Marshall. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Mark Amodei…………………………………………… 50%
Timothy Fasano ………………………………………. 4%
Helmuth Lehmann……………………………………. 4%
Kate Marshall………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Amodei?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kate Marshall?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
MItt Romney …………………………………………… 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Republicans are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or
Congressional Republicans to lead the country
in the right direction?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Congressional Republicans ………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US House?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 37%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry
Reid’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley
Berkley, who would you vote for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 56%
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sharron Angle?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 If the candidates for Congress had been
Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Kate
Marshall, who would you have voted for?
Sharron Angle…………………………………………. 40%
Kate Marshall………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or a member of another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q23 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
