Raleigh, N.C. – As November approaches, Americans are becoming more excited about voting, and a plurality has bought into the conventional wisdom that the Republicans will win control of the U.S. House but that Democrats will narrowly retain the Senate. By a 46-32 margin, registered voters think the GOP will rule the House next January, but by a much smaller 40-36 margin, they do not think that party will be in the Senate majority.
Predictably, Republicans are high on their party’s chances in both chambers, higher for the House, and Democrats are down, more so for the Senate. But independents think the GOP will net at least 40 House seats by a 47-33 margin, and do not think they will gain at least 10 Senate seats, 27-43.
Although the election is looking more and more like a Republican romp, largely because of depressed Democratic turnout and an excited Republican base, those same Americans who recognize the likelihood of Republican gains would, at the same time, prefer to vote for the Democrats. Democrats have retaken a 45-44 lead in the national generic Congressional ballot, after being down 42-45 in August. Independents prefer the GOP by a slim 36-33.
While they are still massively unpopular, Democrats in Congress also still are better liked than their Republican counterparts by 19 points. Largely unchanged since last month, Congressional Democrats have a 34-54 job approval rating to Republicans’ 22-61.
Despite several incumbent Republicans being pushed out by the Tea Party fervor dominating primaries this year, 41% still think there is a place for moderate voters in the GOP, to 34% who do not. 58% of Republicans and a 45% plurality of independents say there is room for non-conservatives, but only 24% of Democrats say that.
“This is just more demonstration that if Democrats were turning out at the same rate they did in 2008, this election would not be nearly as bad for their party as it looks like it will be,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
PPP surveyed 590 American voters from September 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If the election for Congress was today would
you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Democrats in Congress are doing?
Approve…………….. 34%
Disapprove………… 54%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Republicans in Congress are doing?
Approve…………….. 22%
Disapprove………… 61%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q4 Do you think Republicans will gain control of
the House of Representatives this year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 46%
No …………………………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 Do you think Republicans will gain control of
the Senate this year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you think there is a place for moderate
voters in the Republican Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 41%
No …………………………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 Do you think the economy has gotten better,
worse, or stayed about the same since Barack
Obama became President?
Better …………………………………………………….. 32%
Worse ……………………………………………………. 49%
Stayed about the same…………………………….. 20%
Q8 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the midterm election this fall?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 64%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 20%
Not very excited………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%