Raleigh, N.C. – There has been no movement on North Carolina’s proposed marriage amendment since PPP last released a poll a week ago. Likely primary voters are still planning to vote for the amendment by a 14-point margin, this time 55-41, rather than 54-40.
Opposition is rising slightly with Republicans, independents, and African Americans, from 17% to 21% with the GOP, from 43% to 46% with independents, and from 39% to 43% with black voters. Democrats on the whole are opposed by a 54-42 spread. Reports of strong youth turnout in parts of the state could be a good sign for opponents; voters under the age of 30 oppose the amendment by 26 points, while the elder age brackets all support it by spreads of nine to 24 points—though that is down from margins of 16 to 32 points last week.
The good news for the amendment’s opponents is that more voters are now aware of the amendment’s consequences, and if all voters were informed of those consequences, the amendment would fail by a 38-46 margin, the same as last week. A 40% plurality now knows that the amendment would ban both same-sex marriage and civil unions, versus 36% in the previous survey. Those who know what the amendment would do are against it by 22 points, but they are outweighed by the strong support from the uneducated.
As part of the overall 22-point shift, Democrats move 21 points, Republicans 24 points, and independents 16 points against the amendment when told it would ban both marriage and civil unions for gay couples.
The reason this message has an impact is that 55% of these primary voters want same-sex couples to at least have the same legal rights as married heterosexual couples, if not full marriage equality. That includes 67% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and even 35% of Republicans.
“Voters who understand what the amendment does are opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there’s a lot of education left to be done in this final week of the campaign.”
PPP surveyed 982 likely North Carolina primary voters from April 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you think you will vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary election next month, or will
you not vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 52%
Republican primary………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 55%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..27%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Do you think that a ‘yes’ vote on Amendment
One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay
marriage, or are you not sure?
Bans just gay marriage …………………………….. 27%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions …….. 40%
Legalizes gay marriage…………………………….. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q5 If you knew that Amendment One banned both
gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
‘yes’ or ‘no’?
Would vote ‘yes’………………………………………. 38%
Would vote ‘no’ ……………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q11 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 25%