Raleigh, N.C. – If he decides to run for re-election, Virginia Senator Jim Webb would start out in decent shape in a rematch with George Allen, and would be safer against two other potential Republican nominees. If Webb decides to hang up his hat after a single term, current DNC chairman and former Governor Tim Kaine would step in and do just as well. Recently defeated Congressman Tom Perriello, however, would not.
In 2006, Webb defeated Allen by about 0.3% in a surprise upset after being dragged into the race. But Webb would start off the 2012 sequel with a wider 49-45 lead. He would also top Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, 49-38, and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, 49-39.
Should Webb step aside, Kaine would begin with a 50-44 edge over Allen, 48-41 over Bolling, and 50-39 over Cuccinelli. Perriello would trail Allen, 42-47, and Bolling, 41-42, and he would only lead Cuccinelli, 44-41.
The difference, in a state where they comprise almost a third of voters, is independents. Webb and Kaine lead all three Republicans by four to 13 points with unaffiliated voters, but Perriello trails by two to 15. Webb and Kaine also hold their base better and attract more Republican support.
Webb does pretty well on the job approval front in this environment, at 43-37. Allen breaks even with his favorability rating, at 40-41, but Perriello is the least liked and second least known of the six candidates, at 22-32. Bolling does a little better than Cuccinelli in the horseraces despite being far less known because Cuccinelli is more disliked by independents, at 28-42 to Bolling’s 20-22. Bolling and Perriello are known to only 45% and 54% of voters, respectively, so they could be strong contenders if they raise their profiles.
“With Barack Obama looking good to start out the 2012 cycle in Virginia, and now Jim Webb and Tim Kaine joining him, the Republican victories in 2009 and 2010 could be more a blip than 2006 and 2008 were for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 551 Virginia voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob
McDonnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Warner’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 54%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
Webb’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable ………….. 40%
Unfavorable……….. 41%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable ………….. 20%
Unfavorable……….. 25%
Not sure ……………. 55%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable ………….. 31%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 29%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable ………….. 43%
Unfavorable……….. 40%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Perriello?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 32%
Not sure ……………. 46%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Jim Webb and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Jim Webb……………………………………………….. 49%
George Allen…………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Jim Webb and Republican Bill
Bolling, who would you vote for?
Jim Webb……………………………………………….. 49%
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Jim Webb and Republican Ken
Cuccinelli, who would you vote for?
Jim Webb……………………………………………….. 49%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 50%
George Allen…………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Bill
Bolling, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 48%
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Ken
Cuccinelli, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 50%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican
George Allen, who would you vote for?
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 42%
George Allen…………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Bill
Bolling, who would you vote for?
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 41%
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q17 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Ken
Cuccinelli, who would you vote for?
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 44%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q18 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q19 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q22 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
