Raleigh, N.C. – With Jim Webb’s retirement, the Virginia Senate race for 2012 looks like a 50/50 proposition. Webb very narrowly defeated Allen in his 2006 re-election bid, and has decided to bow out after a single term. Allen had already thrown his hat into the race before it was open, in an effort to reclaim his seat. PPP’s first poll of the burgeoning contest in November showed Webb a slight favorite to beat Allen once again, but now Allen is at least tied with every Democrat thrown at him, including former Governor Tim Kaine, who is more popular than Allen.
Kaine and Allen are knotted at 47% apiece. Kaine has become slightly more popular since November, from a 43-40 favorability margin to 46-38 now, while Allen has held steady (40-41 versus 39-40 now). Yet Kaine has declined head-to-head, from a 50-44 lead over Allen previously. The reason is twofold: a neutralization of Kaine’s previous party-unity advantage, where Allen takes more Democrats than Kaine does Republicans, and a huge reversal with independents, from 49-43 in Kaine’s favor to 50-41 in Allen’s.
In other potential matchups, should Kaine not make a bid, Allen beats recently defeated Rep. Rick Boucher, 47-42, and another 2010 House casualty, Tom Perriello, 48-41. In both of those matchups, Allen unites the GOP, wins independents by double digits, and benefits from Boucher’s and Perriello’s low profiles statewide, keeping 12-15% of Democrats undecided. Boucher is an unknown to 60% of voters, and Perriello to 57%. They are both disliked, 14-26 for Boucher and 20-22 for Perriello.
Right now, the three Democrats have leads of four to 14 points over another potential GOP nominee, state Del. Bob Marshall. 72% have no opinion of Marshall, and those who do break 8-20 against him. Tea Party leader Jamie Radtke (unknown to 82%, 4-14 favorable margin) falls by margins of eight to 16 points.
“It’s early but this definitely looks like it will be the marquee Senate race of the 2012 cycle, especially if Tim Kaine jumps in,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “George Allen’s status as a very well known but also very polarizing political figure makes this nearly certain to be a closely contested race.”
Radtke has already announced her candidacy, and several other Republicans are mulling bids. PPP will have numbers on the GOP nomination race later this week.
PPP surveyed 524 Virginia voters from February 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 40%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Boucher?
Favorable ………….. 14%
Unfavorable……….. 26%
Not sure ……………. 60%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable ………….. 46%
Unfavorable……….. 38%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Marshall?
Favorable ………….. 8%
Unfavorable……….. 20%
Not sure ……………. 72%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Perriello?
Favorable ………….. 20%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 57%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable ………….. 4%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 82%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Rick Boucher and Republican
George Allen, who would you vote for?
Rick Boucher ………………………………………….. 42%
George Allen…………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 47%
George Allen…………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican
George Allen, who would you vote for?
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 41%
George Allen…………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Rick Boucher and Republican Bob
Marshall, who would you vote for?
Rick Boucher ………………………………………….. 40%
Bob Marshall…………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Bob
Marshall, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 49%
Bob Marshall…………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Bob
Marshall, who would you vote for?
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 39%
Bob Marshall…………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Rick Boucher and Republican Jamie
Radtke, who would you vote for?
Rick Boucher ………………………………………….. 40%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jamie
Radtke, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 49%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Jamie
Radtke, who would you vote for?
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 40%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
