Raleigh, N.C. – PPP finds that Alaskans overwhelmingly support the minimum wage increase measure that will be on the ballot this fall- 67% are in support of it to only 27% who are opposed. Democrats (86/8) and independents (71/22) are both strongly in favor of it and even Republicans (45/50) are pretty closely divided.

The numbers have been very steady on August’s vote about whether to repeal Senate Bill 21, the Oil and Gas Production Tax. 45% of voters say they will repeal the bill to 34% who say they’ll leave it in place. In February the numbers were 43/31 in favor of repeal and in August they were 46/30 in favor of repeal. The unpopularity of this bill is a big part of why Sean Parnell’s approval numbers are looking pretty mediocre at this point.

It’s looking like a close fight this fall when it comes to whether Alaskans will vote to legalize marijuana- our first poll using the exact wording of the measure finds that 48% of voters intend to support legalizing marijuana, while 45% are opposed.

Alaskans don’t have much to say for a potential Sarah Palin Presidential bid in 2016. Only 19% think she should seek the White House, compared to 74% who think she should sit it out. Palin is actually so weak that she would trail Hillary Clinton 44/41 in a hypothetical contest, even as the rest of the Republican field would lead Clinton. Mike Huckabee has a 43/42 advantage over her, Chris Christie is up 44/41, Rand Paul is up 46/40, and Jeb Bush is up 47/41.

Alaska is even more fragmented than most states when it comes to who Republicans want as their Presidential candidate. Ted Cruz gets 15%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie 14%, Palin 12%, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul 11%, Scott Walker and Paul Ryan 4%, and Marco Rubio 3%.

“It’s been nearly 5 years now since Sarah Palin resigned as Governor of Alaska,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And she still hasn’t come anywhere close to regaining her popularity.”

PPP surveyed 582 registered voters from May 8th to 11th, including 313 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.1%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.5%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 In August, there will be a veto referendum on
Senate Bill 21, also known as the Oil and Gas
Production Tax. If the election was today,
would you vote ‘yes’ to repeal Senate Bill 21 or
‘no’ to leave it in place?
Yes………………………………………………………… 45%
No …………………………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q2 On the November ballot, there will be an
Alaska Marijuana Legalization Measure. This
would allow people age 21 and older to
possess up to one ounce of marijuana and up
to six plants. It would make the manufacture,
sale, and possession of marijuana
paraphernalia legal. If the election was today,
would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on this measure?
Yes………………………………………………………… 48%
No …………………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 Also on the November ballot, there will be an
Alaska Minimum Wage Increase Measure. This
would increase the state’s minimum wage from
$7.75 per hour to $8.75 beginning in 2015 and
then to $9.75 in 2016. After that, it would be
adjusted based on inflation or remain $1 higher
than the federal minimum wage, whichever
amount is greater. If the election was today,
would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on this measure?
Yes………………………………………………………… 67%
No …………………………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 52%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q6 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..46%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………27%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Sarah
Palin, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q12 Do you think Sarah Palin should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think she should run………………………………… 19%
Think she should not………………………………… 74%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q13 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles
Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York
Yankees, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco
Giants, and Seattle Mariners, which is your
favorite major league baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 6%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 11%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 9%
Angels……………………………………………………. 1%
Dodgers …………………………………………………. 5%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 6%
A’s…………………………………………………………. 1%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 5%
Mariners…………………………………………………. 20%
Someone else / Don’t have a favorite team …. 37%

Q14 Would you support or oppose Alaska seceding
from the United States to become part of
Russia?
Support ………………………………………………….. 4%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 92%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q15 Would you support or oppose Alaska seceding
from the United States to become its own
country?
Support ………………………………………………….. 22%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Vladimir Putin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 78%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 16%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 18%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 53%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 20%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q23 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 14%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 11%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 3%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 4%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 4%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 12%

Q2 If Sarah Palin was not a candidate for
President, who would you support, given the
choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz,
Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul
Ryan, and Scott Walker?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 16%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 10%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 4%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 5%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 5%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 16%

Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 5%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 31%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%