Raleigh, N.C. – In our test of hypothetical presidential matchups, Hillary Clinton finds herself outperforming Barack Obama against all potential Republican foes. She trails Jeb Bush 47/39, Chris Christie 43/39, Mike Huckabee 45/41, and Rand Paul 47/41. Clinton, however, would beat out Sarah Palin in Palin’s home state, 44/43. The former Alaska governor is plagued by a low favorability rating amongst Alaskans (39/55). Only 23% of voters think she should run for President in 2016, and it’s not just Democrats: 62% of Republicans think that Palin should not run for President.
Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, though not up for reelection this year, still holds high approval ratings: 50% of voters approve of the job she’s doing, compared to 37% who disapprove. Paradoxically, her support comes mainly from Democrats, who approve 59/27, and Independents, who approve 55/33. Republicans, on the other hand, disapprove 38/50.
On the policy side, a majority of voters in Alaska, along with all the other states we’ve polled, favor extending unemployment benefits (59/34). Alaskans also heavily support an $10 minimum wage (60/33) and medical marijuana (74/22). Voters in the state would even legalize recreational marijuana, with Independents supporting the measure 60/33. And despite Alaska’s conservative reputation, our poll shows a plurality of citizens supporting same-sex marriage (47/46).
“Public opinion in Alaska has moved 9 points in support of gay marriage over the last year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That shows how opinions on this issue are rapidly changing in red states too, just as they are everywhere else.”
Alaskans remain the most loyal to Seattle sports teams, with 24% of voters identifying the Seattle Mariners as their favorite baseball team, and 30% identifying the Seattle Seahawks as their favorite football team. The Seahawks revealed some partisan differences, with 41% of Democrats supporting as compared to 27% of Republicans.
PPP surveyed 850 registered voters from January 30th to February 1st, including 442 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.4%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.7%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 In August, there will be a veto referendum on
Senate Bill 21, also known as the Oil and Gas
Production Tax. If the election was today,
would you vote ‘yes’ to repeal Senate Bill 21 or
‘no’ to leave it in place?
Yes………………………………………………………… 43%
No …………………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 60%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Congress is considering whether to continue or
cut off federal unemployment benefits for
workers whose state unemployment benefits
have ended but cannot find a job. Do you think
that Congress should continue or cut off federal
unemployment benefits at this time?
Strongly feel Congress should continue
benefits …………………………………………………..37%
Somewhat think Congress should continue
benefits …………………………………………………..22%
Strongly feel Congress should cut off benefits 24%
Somewhat think Congress should cut off
benefits …………………………………………………..10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 47%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..44%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………27%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q8 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for medical purposes with the approval
of a doctor, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 74%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q9 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for recreational use, that stores should
be allowed to sell it, and that its sales should
be taxed and regulated similarly to alcohol, or
not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 55%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Sarah
Palin, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q15 Do you think Sarah Palin should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think she should run………………………………… 23%
Think she should not………………………………… 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q16 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles
Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York
Yankees, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco
Giants, and Seattle Mariners, which is your
favorite major league baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 5%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 11%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 9%
Angels……………………………………………………. 2%
Dodgers …………………………………………………. 4%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 7%
A’s…………………………………………………………. 1%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 4%
Mariners…………………………………………………. 24%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 35%
Q17 Given the choices of the Dallas Cowboys,
Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New
York Giants, Oakland Raiders, San Diego
Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle
Seahawks, which is you favorite professional
football team?
Cowboys………………………………………………… 5%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 15%
Packers………………………………………………….. 13%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 1%
Raiders ………………………………………………….. 3%
Chargers………………………………………………… 2%
49ers……………………………………………………… 7%
Seahawks ………………………………………………. 30%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 24%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of snow?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 75%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 12%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 46%
Q23 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 21%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
Q25 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 10%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 15%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 6%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 4%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q2 If Sarah Palin was not a candidate for
President, who would you support, given the
choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz,
Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul
Ryan, and Scott Walker?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 14%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 9%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 13%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 7%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
