SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Raleigh, N.C. – Former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is itching for a rematch of the contest he narrowly lost in 2008 against then Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue. Almost two years out from the election, McCrory tops Perdue by double digits with registered voters, versus his less-than-four-point loss two years ago. Perdue also narrowly trails current GOP chairman and former Raleigh mayor Tom Fetzer.

McCrory bests his once and perhaps future rival, 49-37, but Fetzer just barely noses ahead, 42-40. Both men have strong leads with independents, but McCrory’s 58-27 advantage is landslide territory compared to Fetzer’s more modest 42-31. Both also take a huge chunk of Democrats, but McCrory a full quarter to Fetzer’s 17%. Perdue pulls only 5 or 6% of Republicans.

Part of Fetzer’s relative weakness compared to McCrory is that hardly anyone knows who he is. Despite his visibility during the midterm campaign, his name recognition has hardly inched up from April, when his favorability rating was an almost nonexistent 8-11 spread. Now, 11% have a positive impression and 19% a negative one, a movement in the wrong direction, and still 70% have no opinion, most of whom probably have not heard of him. By comparison, McCrory has a strong 34-20 grade, with only 45% unsure. The strange thing for Fetzer is that considerably more of his party is unaware of him than are Democrats, and McCrory trounces him, at 49-11 to Fetzer’s 16-9, with the GOP. McCrory also does far better with Democrats (breaking even at 24-27 to Fetzer’s 8-27) and independents (34-18 versus 9-16).

Considering that President Obama is ten points more popular on the margin than Perdue is, and how much better he is doing against his potential Republican rivals, the governor would go a long way toward making herself competitive for a second term if she improved her job performance rating. Her 33-49 remains roughly what it has all year.

“2012 is a long way away and Bev Perdue has plenty of time to strengthen her position,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s clear she’s going to have to pick up a lot of ground with independents and the more conservative wing of her party over the next two years to win a second term.”

PPP surveyed 517 North Carolina voters from November 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or (919) 880-4888.
Quesitons about the poll? Contact Tom Jensen at (919) 774-6312 

NORTH CAROLINA SURVEY RESULTS

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev Perdue’s job performance?

Approve…………….. 33%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Disapprove ………… 49%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Fetzer?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Pat McCrory?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q4 If the candidates for Governor in 2012 were Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Tom Fetzer, who would you vote for?

Bev Perdue …………………………………………….. 40%
Tom Fetzer………………………………………………42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor in 2012 were Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat McCrory, who would you vote for?

Bev Perdue …………………………………………….. 37%
Pat McCrory ……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q6 Would you rather see Nancy Pelosi or Heath Shuler as the Democratic leader in the next Congress?

Nancy Pelosi …………………………………………… 27%
Heath Shuler …………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain……………………………………………49%
Barack Obama…………………………………………45%
Someoneelse/Don’tremember…………………. 6%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative …………………………………………… 42%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican ……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other …………………………………… 17%

Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, press 2. If other, press 3.

White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 20%

Full results (including crossover tabs) and press release: PPP_Release_NC_1129.pdf