Raleigh, N.C. – It was the closest re-election of any Democratic U.S. Senate incumbent that year, but at nine points, Robert Menendez’s margin over new State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., in 2006 speaks to how strong a year it was for the Democratic Party. If the two tangled again now, Menendez would barely squeak by, but he would beat two other potential opponents by much wider margins, looking ahead to his presumed 2012 bid for a second full and third partial term.
Menendez tops Kean now only 41-39 after soundly defeating him 53-44 just over four years ago. But Menendez beats outspoken talk show host Lou Dobbs, 47-35, and Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, 45-30.
Menendez takes twice as many Republicans as either Guadagno or Dobbs do Democrats, but Kean makes up for the GOP’s large party-registration deficit by almost reversing that trend, pulling 12% of Democrats from Menendez and seeing only 7% of his party go the other way. Kean and Dobbs top Menendez by similar 42-34 and 41-37 margins with independents, while Guadagno trails with that group, 29-33.
Voters are split on Menendez’s job performance, 37-38, not good in a state so strongly Democratic. A quarter of voters, including his own partymates, still are unsure how they feel about him, and those Democrats give him only a 57-16 spread, while two-thirds of Republicans disapprove, and independents break down 32-44 against him. Just over half the state still has no opinion on the son of the former governor, but those who do know Kean break 31-18 in his favor. Even Democrats narrowly favor him, 26-22, and independents, 29-14. Those numbers are pretty good when compared to Dobbs’ overall 25-30 favorability rating and Guadagno’s 10-18. But 72% are unaware of Guadagno.
“We’ve known for months now that Menendez has weak approval numbers,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The good news for him is despite that he still leads all his potential opponents for reelection. But there’s a good chance it won’t be easy.”
PPP surveyed 520 New Jersey voters from January 6th to 9th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Frank Lautenberg’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Robert Menendez’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lou Dobbs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Guadagno?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Kean, Jr.?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Lou Dobbs, who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez …………………………………… 47%
Lou Dobbs ……………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Kim Guadagno, who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez …………………………………… 45%
Kim Guadagno………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Tom Kean, Jr., who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez …………………………………… 41%
Tom Kean, Jr…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 48%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
