Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48,
flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found
Romney leading by a point.
Obama’s leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African
Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men
(53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages
with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).
Floridians actually trust Romney over Obama to deal both with the economy
(50/46) and foreign policy (49/48) so something else is driving Obama’s razor
thin lead in the state. When asked to consider who won the debates as a whole
voters pick Romney by a 47/46 margin, indicating that Obama’s wins in the last
two debates mostly made up for his overwhelming loss in the first one.
“The Presidential race in Florida right now couldn’t be much closer,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “All three polls we’ve done of
the state since the first Presidential debate have found the candidates within
a point of each other.”
In Florida’s Senate race incumbent Bill Nelson looks to have a pretty commanding
lead heading into the final week of the campaign, 50/42 over Republican foe
Connie Mack IV. Nelson’s approval rating is on positive ground for the first
time in quite a while at 44/41. Mack continues to be quite an unpopular
candidate with only 36% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative
one. Nelson is winning independent voters 51/36 even as Obama is simultaneously
losing them, and he’s also taking 17% of the Republican vote.
Republican voters are slightly more enthusiastic than Democrats in Florida
this fall with 72% of them saying they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in the
election to 68% of Democrats who say the same thing. It’s a small difference
but any little thing could matter in a state that’s very closely divided at
this point.
PPP surveyed 687
likely voters from October 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 50%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Who do you think won the Presidential debates
overall?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q9 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q10 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 68%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 22%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 10%
Q11 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
