Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.
Americans generally have a favorable view of most states. Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27). Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).
Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.
The rest of our poll in Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District just further confirms stuff we've known since we did a full blown statewide poll last May:
-Tom Coburn is one of the most popular Senators in the country, and not remotely vulnerable for reelection. His approval in the district is a 56/32 spread in a time when we rarely find any Senators over the 50% mark. His 61% approval with independents is particularly strong considering those voters don't tend to like anyone right now, and 39% crossover support from Democrats is unusually high as well.
-Brad Henry and James Inhofe are pretty popular as well, each sporting an approval rating of 48%. Back in the day you might have said 50% was a good approval threshold but in a time when voters dislike pretty much everyone 40 might be the new 50, so these are good numbers. Oklahoma likes its politicians more than most states across the country.
-Yesterday Rasmussen showed Mary Fallin likely to be the state's next Governor, and we don't dispute that. In this particular district, which closely matched the statewide Presidential vote in 2008, Fallin leads Drew Edmondson 48-32 and Jari Askins 46-30. If Randy Brogdon can somehow win the primary this will be a close race in the general election- he leads Edmondson and trails Askins by a point each.
This may be the end of our Oklahoma polling for the year- the state just doesn't look too competitive. Full results here
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve .......................................................... 27% Disapprove...................................................... 65% Not Sure.......................................................... 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Dan Boren’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve .......................................................... 51% Disapprove...................................................... 33% Not Sure.......................................................... 17%
A lot of Democratic Congressmen in districts won by John McCain are in big trouble this year. Dan Boren doesn't appear to be one of them.
Boren is the first Democratic member of Congress we've found with an approval rating over 50% since we polled on Mark Warner back in October. 51% of his constituents like the job he's doing to just 33% who disapprove of it.
Boren holds large leads over a quartet of Republican opponents with minimal name recognition. He's up 44-28 on Daniel Edmonds, 45-25 on Charles Thompson, 48-26 on Howard Houchen, and 49-22 on Dan Arnett. Independent Miki Booth, an avowed 'birther,' receives 7-8% of the vote in each of those match ups. Only 18-21% of the voters have an opinion about any of the Republican candidates, suggesting that the race does have the potential to tighten once the candidates become better known. Nevertheless this race doesn't appear to be remotely among the GOP's top pickup opportunities.
Boren's continuing to be successful despite the highly conservative nature of his district. Barack Obama's approval rating is a 27/65 spread, with even Democrats disapproving of him by a 42/47 margin. This is the first place we've ever found Obama's numbers in negative territory within his own party. Only 17% of voters in the district, including just 29% of Democrats, support the Democratic health care plan.
Even though Boren has voted against a large number of major Democratic initiatives, 31% of his constituents still think he's too liberal. That perception may be based in some part on misinformation though- 32% of voters think he supported the health care bill while only 30% correctly identify that he voted against it.
On the whole Boren's clearly done a good job of differentiating how his constituents feel about him personally from how they feel about his party. 70% of his district disapproves of the job Congressional Democrats are doing. But most of them are planning to vote for him anyway.
Drew Edmondson made his candidacy for Governor of Oklahoma official earlier this week. Based on the initial poll we did of the race last month he is the stronger Democratic candidate.
We found that 59% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 48% for Jari Askins. He also starts out as a stronger general election candidate. He gets better reviews among Republicans (32% favorable to 26% for Askins) and independents (27% favorable to 19% for Askins), and is more competitive in a head to contest with Mary Fallin, trailing by ten points to Askins' 16.
At the same time you can argue these comparative numbers are pretty good for Askins. She's been in statewide office for two and a half years to Edmondson's 14 and a half and doesn't have the family name that carries a lot of weight in Oklahoma politics. Based on those facts you might expect Edmondson's initial numbers to be vastly superior to those of Askins, and that's not the case.
Well I don't think there's much hope for Democrats in Oklahoma next year.
Tom Coburn might retire but I doubt Brad Henry is going to get in the race and even if he does I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being 2004 all over again, when Brad Carson was a great candidate who just couldn't overcome the conservatism of the state.
The fact that Henry doesn't start out with the lead against some possible opponents is pretty discouraging because this is actually one state where running against Barack Obama likely would be effective. The message that Democrats in Washington don't need any more control would be a powerful one in the Sooner State, and could very well have the potency to overcome someone like Henry's personal popularity.
Republicans aren't likely to have the kind of success Democrats did in 2006 and 2008 running against the President, but if there's one place where they will it's Oklahoma.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve .......................................................... 38% Disapprove...................................................... 56% Not Sure.......................................................... 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Senator James Inhofe’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve .......................................................... 52% Disapprove...................................................... 35% Not Sure.......................................................... 13%
A majority of Oklahoma voters disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President, not a great surprise in the state he fared poorest in at the ballot box last year.
Just 38% of voters approve of his performance so far, with 56% disapproving.
Even among Democrats 31% disapprove of Obama's work, a rate far higher than PPP has found in any other state. And while he's doing pretty well with independents nationally, 58% disapprove of him in the Sooner State.
To get a gauge of just how conservative Oklahoma is we also took a look at public opinion about Rush Limbaugh in the state, and asked respondents whether they think Limbaugh or Obama has a better vision for America.
Even in this reddest of states, more voters have a negative opinion of Limbaugh than a positive one, by a margin of 45-39. But when it comes to whether they think the country should head more in the direction the President envisions or the one the talk show host would like to see Limbaugh wins out 56-44. 81% of Republicans, 58% of independents, and even 29% of Democrats picked him.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of former Republican Congressman J.C. Watts? If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Favorable................ 46% Unfavorable ............ 35% Not Sure.................. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins? If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Favorable........................................................ 35% Unfavorable .................................................... 29% Not Sure.......................................................... 36%
PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"
