Public Policy Polling

Hillary Clinton would be dominant in New Hampshire in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – If Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, she would likely clear the Democratic primary field in New Hampshire and could put the general election swing state out of reach for Republicans, according to PPP’s latest poll.

In a nine-way Democratic primary contest, Clinton captures 68% support, followed distantly by 12% for Joe Biden, 9% for someone else or not sure, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, 2% for Deval Patrick, 1% for Kirsten Gillibrand and Martin O’Malley, and less than 1% for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner.

In general election match-ups, Clinton would lead Rand Paul by 11 points, 52% to 41%, and Marco Rubio by 14 points, 52% to 38%. She holds sizeable leads with moderate voters against Paul (68/20) and Rubio (67/18).

Paul rising in New Hampshire

PPP's new poll of New Hampshire Republicans about 2016 finds momentum on Rand Paul's side. He leads the potential field with 28% to 25% for Marco Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% each for Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal.

Paul has seen a huge increase in his support from when PPP last looked at New Hampshire in November, from 4% then to his current 28% standing. Also on the rise is Rubio who's gone up 11 points from 14% to 25%. On the down swing are Christie who's dropped 7 points from 21% and the lead then to 14% and 3rd place now, Bush who's dropped 4 points from 11% to 7%, and Ryan who's dropped 3 points from 10% to 7%.

Paul is benefiting from his appeal to independent voters. Rubio leads him 29/26 among voters who are actually registered as Republicans, but Paul's at 32% with independents to 19% for Christie and 17% for Rubio. Paul also leads Rubio with men (33/22) and younger voters (35/26), while Rubio has the upper hand with women (27/22) and seniors (35/14).

On the Democratic side desire for Hillary Clinton to be the party nominee next year has just increased even further from November. Then 60% of Democrats supported her, now that's up to 68% who want her as their candidate to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Deval Patrick with nobody else over 1%. Clinton has over 50% support from men and women, young, middle aged, and old voters, 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' voters, and both Democrats and independents.

Hassan riding high in New Hampshire, safe for 2014 re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for  re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election.

Hassan has a +19 job approval rating with 50% of voters approving and 31% disapproving of her performance. Democrats (80/8) and independents (47/29) approve of Hassan, who also nabs 18% support from Republicans. She has 14 to 20 point leads over five possible GOP opponents. She leads Jeb Bradley 52/38, Chris Sununu 53/37, Ted Gastas 51/35, Frank Guinta 54/36 and Kevin Smith 52/32. None of these potential candidates have a positive favorability rating with New Hampshire voters.

Ayotte faces backlash over gun vote

Gun show background checks are pretty universally popular in New Hampshire...and Kelly Ayotte is facing some serious backlash from voters in the state for voting against them last week.

Ayotte now has a negative approval rating with 44% of voters giving her good marks and 46% disapproving. That's down a net 15 points from the last time we polled on her, in October, when she had a 48% approval with 35% disapproving. 75% of New Hampshire voters- including 95% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 56% of Republicans- say they support background checks. And 50% of voters in the state say Ayotte's 'no' vote will make them less likely to support her in a future election, compared to just 23% who consider it to be a positive.

Ayotte won her seat in 2010 by 23 points. But in a very early hypothetical match up between her and new Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, she trails by a 46/44 margin. This issue is really giving her some trouble.

Speaking of Hassan, she's off to a good start in her first term as Governor. 50% of voters approve of her to only 31% who disapprove, including a 47/29 spread with independents. She holds leads ranging from 14 to 20 points over five potential Republican foes for reelection that we tested against her.

Former Congressman Jeb Bradley does the best but still trails by 14 points at 52/38. He is followed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas and Sununu family member Chris Sununu who trail by 16 points each at 51/35 and 53/37 respectively, former Congressman Frank Guinta who trails by 18 at 54/36, and 2012 primary runner up Kevin Smith who has a 20 point deficit at 52/32. Hassan holds a double digit lead among independents and pulls double digit support from Republican voters in each match up.

A few other notes from New Hampshire:

Obama leads by 2 points in Iowa and New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Iowa and New Hampshire find Barack Obama with identical 50-48 leads. These small advantages for Obama are consistent with what PPP's found since the first Presidential debate- 5 Iowa polls have produced an average Obama lead of 1.8 points and 3 New Hampshire polls have produced an average Obama lead of a single point.

In Iowa Obama's already built up a large lead among people who participated in the early voting period, 61/39. Romney's up 56/41 with people planning to cast their ballots on election day but he'll need to win by an even wider margin than that if he's going to take the state.

Obama's leading in Iowa thanks particularly to strong support from independents (51/43) and women (52/46). He trails 53/45 with seniors but is winning with every other age group.

Obama leads by 2 in Iowa and New Hampshire

PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Iowa and New Hampshire find Barack Obama with identical 50-48 leads. These small advantages for Obama are consistent with what PPP's found since the first Presidential debate- 5 Iowa polls have produced an average Obama lead of 1.8 points and 3 New Hampshire polls have produced an average Obama lead of a single point.

In Iowa Obama's already built up a large lead among people who participated in the early voting period, 61/39. Romney's up 56/41 with people planning to cast their ballots on election day but he'll need to win by an even wider margin than that if he's going to take the state.

Obama's leading in Iowa thanks particularly to strong support from independents (51/43) and women (52/46). He trails 53/45 with seniors but is winning with every other age group.

In New Hampshire the candidates are tied with independents but Obama has the slight overall advantage because he's winning over 9% of Republicans while just 4% of Democrats are planning to vote for Romney. Just as in Iowa Obama's relying on strong support from women (54/45) and winning across most of the age spectrum.

Democrat Maggie Hassan is looking like the favorite to be the next Governor of New Hampshire. For the second week in a row we find her with a 4 point lead over Ovide Lamontagne- the breakdown this time is 51/47. Voters have a positive opinion of Hassan (44/39) while Lamontagne is quite unpopular (40/46). Hassan's winning 51/46 with independents and taking 11% of Republicans to Lamontagne's 5% of Democrats.

Full results here

Obama up by 2 in New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49/47. That represents a three point improvement for Obama from a week ago when he had trailed 49/48.

Granite State voters narrowly approve of the job Obama's doing, 49/48. They're not terribly fond of Romney with 47% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. They trust Romney more than Obama by a 49/47 margin on the economy, but they trust Obama over Romney by a 51/46 spread on foreign policy. New Hampshire voters mostly think Obama's victories in the last two debates equaled out Romney's big win the first debate- asked to say who was the winner of the debates as a whole Romney wins out just narrowly, 46/43.

Obama leads narrowly in New Hampshire

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49/47. That represents a three point improvement for Obama from a week ago when he had trailed 49/48.

Granite State voters narrowly approve of the job Obama's doing, 49/48. They're not terribly fond of Romney with 47% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. They trust Romney more than Obama by a 49/47 margin on the economy, but they trust Obama over Romney by a 51/46 spread on foreign policy. New Hampshire voters mostly think Obama's victories in the last two debates equaled out Romney's big win the first debate- asked to say who was the winner of the debates as a whole Romney wins out just narrowly, 46/43.

Women are the key group keeping Obama ahead in New Hampshire. He has a 57/39 advantage with them that's just enough to make up for his trailing by a 56/39 margin with men. Romney has a 47/45 advantage with independents, but Obama's overcoming that by winning over slightly more Republican voters (9%) than Romney is Democrats (6%).

In the Governor's race Democrat Maggie Hassan continues to be the favorite over Republican foe Ovide Lamontagne, leading 48/44. Hassan has considerably better favorability numbers (46/40) than Lamontagne who is quite unpopular with only 41% of voters rating him positively to 51% with a negative opinion.

Obama wins debate by 11 points in swing states

PPP's post debate poll in the swing states, conducted on behalf of Americans United for Change, finds that Barack Obama was the big winner in tonight's face off. 53% of those surveyed in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin think Obama was the winner to 42% who pick Romney.

Obama's winning margin among critical independent voters was even larger than his overall win, with 55% of them picking him as the winner to 40% for Romney. The sense that Obama was the winner is pretty universal across different demographics groups- women (57/39), men (48/45), Hispanics (69/29), African Americans (87/13), whites (49/45), young voters (55/40), and seniors (53/43) all think Obama came out ahead tonight.

Maybe even more important than the sentiment on who won the debate is who folks in these swing states are planning to vote for now: 51% of them say they're going to support Obama to 45% who stand with Romney. That includes a 46/36 advantage for Obama with independents, and Obama also seems to have made a lot of progress with groups he was previously down by wide margins with. Among men (50/47) and whites (50/46) he is trailing only slightly and with seniors he's actually ahead 52/47.

Romney leads by 1 in Iowa and New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September. Voters in both Iowa (45/36) and New Hampshire (46/38) do think that Obama won the debate on Tuesday night. But unlike Romney's win in the first debate this one doesn't seem to be moving the needle too much.

Mitt Romney's seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He's seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama's approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he's dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.