Polls

Races for Governor, Senate remain close in Colorado

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Colorado poll finds very close races for both Governor and the Senate. Cory Gardner is up 46/43 on Mark Udall in the Senate race, while John Hickenlooper has a 45/44 advantage over Bob Beauprez in the Governor’s race.

Both Democrats are doing well with the groups Democrats tend to do well with in Colorado. Hickenlooper is up 49/39 with women, 60/28 with Hispanics, and 59/31 with young voters. Udall is similarly ahead 46/42 with women, 64/24 with Hispanics, and 59/22 with young voters. The problem for the Democrats is that they are down by significant margins with men- Hickenlooper trails by 10 points, Udall by 11 points- with white voters- Hickenlooper trails by 5 points, Udall by 12 points, and with seniors- Hickenlooper trails by 9 points, Udall by 13 points. The struggles with those groups are largely offsetting their strength with their traditional constituencies.

Udall continues to struggle with his approval numbers, as only 37% of voters think he’s doing a good job to 52% who disapprove. Hickenlooper’s approval is under water as well, with 43% of voters approving of him and 49% disapproving. Both Republican candidates have narrowly positive favorability ratings- Gardner comes in at 45/42 and Beauprez at 41/39.

“Republicans have a chance for their first big statewide victories in Colorado in a decade because they’re running up the score with the groups they need to do well with- men, white voters, and seniors,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If they can continue that it will offset their difficulties with women, Hispanics, and young voters.”

Further down the ticket the closest race is for Treasurer, where incumbent Republican Walker Stapleton leads Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 42/40. Stapleton’s lead had been 10 points when we last polled the state in July. Republicans have larger leadsin the other down ballot races- Wayne Williams is up 36/31 on Joe Neguse for Secretary of State and Cynthia Coffman has a 46/32 advantage over Don Quick for Attorney General.

PPP surveyed 778 likely voters from October 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Beauprez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q4 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Democrat John Hickenlooper, Republican Bob
Beauprez, Green Party candidate Harry
Hempy, Libertarian Matthew Hess, unaffiliated
candidate Mike Dunafon, and unaffiliated
candidate Paul Noel Fiorino. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 45%
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 44%
Harry Hempy…………………………………………… 2%
Matthew Hess …………………………………………. 1%
Mike Dunafon………………………………………….. 1%
Paul Noel Fiorino …………………………………….. 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q5 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Hickenlooper or
Beauprez
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 46%
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Gardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are
Democrat Mark Udall, Republican Cory
Gardner, Libertarian Gaylon Kent, Unity Party
of Colorado candidate Bill Hammons,
unaffiliated candidate Raul Acosta, and
unaffiliated candidate Steve Shogan. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 43%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 46%
Gaylon Kent ……………………………………………. 2%
Bill Hammons………………………………………….. 1%
Raul Acosta…………………………………………….. 1%
Steve Shogan …………………………………………. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Udall or Gardner
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 44%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Joe Neguse, Republican Wayne
Williams, American Constitution Party
candidate Amanda Campbell, and Libertarian
Dave Schambach. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Joe Neguse…………………………………………….. 31%
Wayne Williams ………………………………………. 36%
Amanda Campbell …………………………………… 10%
Dave Schambach ……………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q11 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Betsy Markey, Republican Walker
Stapleton, and Libertarian David Jurist. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Betsy Markey ………………………………………….. 40%
Walker Stapleton……………………………………… 42%
David Jurist …………………………………………….. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Don Quick, Republican Cynthia
Coffman, and Libertarian David Williams. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Don Quick………………………………………………. 32%
Cynthia Coffman ……………………………………… 46%
David Williams ………………………………………… 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q13 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q14 Amendment 67, which will be on the ballot this
fall, reads, “Shall there be an amendment to
the Colorado constitution protecting pregnant
women and unborn children by defining
‘person’ and ‘child’ in the Colorado criminal
code and the Colorado Wrongful Death Act to
include unborn human beings?” If the election
was today, would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on
Amendment 67?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Michael Bennet’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q16 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 54%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q17 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..50%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………26%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage becoming
legal in Colorado will have a positive or
negative impact on your life, or will it not make
a difference?
Positive impact………………………………………… 17%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 29%
Don’t think it’ll make a difference ……………….. 54%

Q19 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%

Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 29%

Q23 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Q25 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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